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Wednesday, 05 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 COALspot.com: The steep appreciation in dry bulker values between late 2012 and March 2014 resulted in unrealistically expensive ship values compared to fundamentals and vessel’s earnings. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but while several owners attempted to offload tonnage acquired at rock-bottom prices only a dozen of owners managed to successfully do so.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Today, after the ongoing correction in newbuildings prices, we still stand well in excess of 10% above previous lows. We do not anticipate witnessing new lows in the Newbuildings market because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows. This is not only due to labor and maker’s inflation but also because of incoming new regulations (notably, Tier III engines, harmonized CSR, etc). Indeed, certain shipbuilders in all major shipbuilding countries have realized this and are more aggressively marketing slots again in advance in order to secure orders which demand a lower cost of construction.
During the same period in the S&P market, volatility prevailed. As far as LME Panamaxes are concerned, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at rgn m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in just 14 months. The current correction notoriously commenced back in June with the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd which marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ sold just 3 months earlier (in March 2014). Asset values were brought back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. This week’s reported sale of 2008-built Japanese-built Kamsarmax Medi Sentosa at region 19.5musd to Greeks is marginally discounted when compared to the sale of ex-Stefania Lembo (82k, 2010, Tsuneishi – JPN) to Diana Shipping back in September 2013. Interestingly, the price correction for older tonnage Panamax tonnage is steeper. More than a month ago the Japanese controlled Panamax Bulker 'Mishima' (76600kdwt, 2002, Imabari, MAN B&W 6S60) was committed at rgn 12.5musd to Greeks very close to the levels of ex-Archon (75k, Hitachi, 2001, B&W 6S60) which was committed in the end of January 2013 (very close to the bottom) by Greeks at rgn 12.4musd. That said, as far as mid/late 90s Panamaxes the prices are concerned, these are currently very close to the previous bottom.
Two ongoing factors that we need to take into consideration are the weakening Japanese Yen and the price of Oil/Bunkers. The Japanese Yen, which declined to a seven year low versus the dollar, and its outlook after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly increased monetary stimulus that tends to devalue the currency, will further entice more Japanese owners and Builders to sell Vessels and Slots, respectively, and accept less dollars. Moving on to the price of oil, a rule of thumb is that a 10% decrease will increase 0.25% off global growth, while the lower price of Bunkers will hurt the newbuildings ‘eco’ story and will give some support to “non-eco” tonnage. Based on the recent history and the rock-bottom price resistance levels witnessed before, there may be longer-term value in Newbuilding and S&P deals priced south of current market levels.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 28 October 14
SGX'S FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY Q1' 2015 CLOSED AT $ 68.07 ON 24 OCT
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 0.65 (-0.96%) month over month and increased US$ 1.79 (+2. ...
Tuesday, 28 October 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED 3.68% LOWER MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost month on month and gained day on day and week on week.
The swap has lost US ...
Monday, 27 October 14
GOVT PROMISES TO EASE LICENSING PROCEDURES IN MINING SECTOR - THE JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry’s directorate general for mineral and coal plans to simplify the complicated licensing procedures i ...
Monday, 27 October 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED $ 0.10 LESSER THAN Q4' 14 CLOSING OF $ 53.27 PMT
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.43 (-2.61%) month over month and increased US$ 0.05 (+0.09% ...
Monday, 27 October 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS PERFORMED POSITIVE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.68 (-2.55%) month over month and increased US$ 0.87 (+1.3 ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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