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Wednesday, 05 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 COALspot.com: The steep appreciation in dry bulker values between late 2012 and March 2014 resulted in unrealistically expensive ship values compared to fundamentals and vessel’s earnings. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but while several owners attempted to offload tonnage acquired at rock-bottom prices only a dozen of owners managed to successfully do so.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Today, after the ongoing correction in newbuildings prices, we still stand well in excess of 10% above previous lows. We do not anticipate witnessing new lows in the Newbuildings market because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows. This is not only due to labor and maker’s inflation but also because of incoming new regulations (notably, Tier III engines, harmonized CSR, etc). Indeed, certain shipbuilders in all major shipbuilding countries have realized this and are more aggressively marketing slots again in advance in order to secure orders which demand a lower cost of construction.
During the same period in the S&P market, volatility prevailed. As far as LME Panamaxes are concerned, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at rgn m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in just 14 months. The current correction notoriously commenced back in June with the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd which marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ sold just 3 months earlier (in March 2014). Asset values were brought back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. This week’s reported sale of 2008-built Japanese-built Kamsarmax Medi Sentosa at region 19.5musd to Greeks is marginally discounted when compared to the sale of ex-Stefania Lembo (82k, 2010, Tsuneishi – JPN) to Diana Shipping back in September 2013. Interestingly, the price correction for older tonnage Panamax tonnage is steeper. More than a month ago the Japanese controlled Panamax Bulker 'Mishima' (76600kdwt, 2002, Imabari, MAN B&W 6S60) was committed at rgn 12.5musd to Greeks very close to the levels of ex-Archon (75k, Hitachi, 2001, B&W 6S60) which was committed in the end of January 2013 (very close to the bottom) by Greeks at rgn 12.4musd. That said, as far as mid/late 90s Panamaxes the prices are concerned, these are currently very close to the previous bottom.
Two ongoing factors that we need to take into consideration are the weakening Japanese Yen and the price of Oil/Bunkers. The Japanese Yen, which declined to a seven year low versus the dollar, and its outlook after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly increased monetary stimulus that tends to devalue the currency, will further entice more Japanese owners and Builders to sell Vessels and Slots, respectively, and accept less dollars. Moving on to the price of oil, a rule of thumb is that a 10% decrease will increase 0.25% off global growth, while the lower price of Bunkers will hurt the newbuildings ‘eco’ story and will give some support to “non-eco” tonnage. Based on the recent history and the rock-bottom price resistance levels witnessed before, there may be longer-term value in Newbuilding and S&P deals priced south of current market levels.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 26 October 14
CAPE'S STRONG PERFORMANCE PUSHES BDI INDEX UPWARDS
COALspot.com: The BDI was up by 26.27 pct and closed at 1192 points week and week. The Cape size performance has pushed up BDI and Cape size index ...
Friday, 24 October 14
WEEKLY U.S COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 2.7% FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 18
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.7 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 23 October 14
THE BEARS, HOWEVER, STILL CRY; FOR HOW LONG WILL IT LAST? - FEARNLEYS
Handy
"We experience a typical oversupply of ships in the Atlantic which causing rates to slide. In the USG it is just enough cargoes to kee ...
Wednesday, 22 October 14
MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS, INTERMODAL
ECO designs - revisited
The ECO vessels are already here but the oil and bunker prices are plummeting to their cheapest level since 2010. Is this ...
Wednesday, 22 October 14
CAPESIZE MARKET REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed on the red for yet another week although following Friday sentiment has started to improve on the back of ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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