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Wednesday, 05 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 COALspot.com: The steep appreciation in dry bulker values between late 2012 and March 2014 resulted in unrealistically expensive ship values compared to fundamentals and vessel’s earnings. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but while several owners attempted to offload tonnage acquired at rock-bottom prices only a dozen of owners managed to successfully do so.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Today, after the ongoing correction in newbuildings prices, we still stand well in excess of 10% above previous lows. We do not anticipate witnessing new lows in the Newbuildings market because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows. This is not only due to labor and maker’s inflation but also because of incoming new regulations (notably, Tier III engines, harmonized CSR, etc). Indeed, certain shipbuilders in all major shipbuilding countries have realized this and are more aggressively marketing slots again in advance in order to secure orders which demand a lower cost of construction.
During the same period in the S&P market, volatility prevailed. As far as LME Panamaxes are concerned, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at rgn m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in just 14 months. The current correction notoriously commenced back in June with the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd which marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ sold just 3 months earlier (in March 2014). Asset values were brought back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. This week’s reported sale of 2008-built Japanese-built Kamsarmax Medi Sentosa at region 19.5musd to Greeks is marginally discounted when compared to the sale of ex-Stefania Lembo (82k, 2010, Tsuneishi – JPN) to Diana Shipping back in September 2013. Interestingly, the price correction for older tonnage Panamax tonnage is steeper. More than a month ago the Japanese controlled Panamax Bulker 'Mishima' (76600kdwt, 2002, Imabari, MAN B&W 6S60) was committed at rgn 12.5musd to Greeks very close to the levels of ex-Archon (75k, Hitachi, 2001, B&W 6S60) which was committed in the end of January 2013 (very close to the bottom) by Greeks at rgn 12.4musd. That said, as far as mid/late 90s Panamaxes the prices are concerned, these are currently very close to the previous bottom.
Two ongoing factors that we need to take into consideration are the weakening Japanese Yen and the price of Oil/Bunkers. The Japanese Yen, which declined to a seven year low versus the dollar, and its outlook after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly increased monetary stimulus that tends to devalue the currency, will further entice more Japanese owners and Builders to sell Vessels and Slots, respectively, and accept less dollars. Moving on to the price of oil, a rule of thumb is that a 10% decrease will increase 0.25% off global growth, while the lower price of Bunkers will hurt the newbuildings ‘eco’ story and will give some support to “non-eco” tonnage. Based on the recent history and the rock-bottom price resistance levels witnessed before, there may be longer-term value in Newbuilding and S&P deals priced south of current market levels.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 21 October 14
INDIA'S DIESEL DEREGULATION POSITIVE FOR OIL COMPANIES - FITCH
The Indian government's 18 October decision to deregulate diesel prices will have a positive effect on the national oil marketing companies tha ...
Tuesday, 21 October 14
LOW DEMAND PUTTING COAL SWAPS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost on day, week and month.
The swap has lost US$ 1.57 (-3.04%) month on month ...
Monday, 20 October 14
CHINA'S ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES DO NOT SPELL THE END FOR COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
China's environmental policies do not spell the end for coal Analysis across energy commodities show coal still accounting for 64% of power mix ...
Monday, 20 October 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FAILED TO PERFORM POSITIVE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 3.04 (-4.57%) month over month and US$ 1.75 (-2.68%) week o ...
Sunday, 19 October 14
LOW DEMAND PUSHES DOWN COAL FREIGHT RATES; VOLATILITY CONTINUES
COALspot.com: This week all the segments softened including BDI except for Panamax index.
The BDI was down by1.70 pct and clsoed at 944 points ...
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Showing 3416 to 3420 news of total 6871 |
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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