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Wednesday, 05 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 COALspot.com: The steep appreciation in dry bulker values between late 2012 and March 2014 resulted in unrealistically expensive ship values compared to fundamentals and vessel’s earnings. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but while several owners attempted to offload tonnage acquired at rock-bottom prices only a dozen of owners managed to successfully do so.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Today, after the ongoing correction in newbuildings prices, we still stand well in excess of 10% above previous lows. We do not anticipate witnessing new lows in the Newbuildings market because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows. This is not only due to labor and maker’s inflation but also because of incoming new regulations (notably, Tier III engines, harmonized CSR, etc). Indeed, certain shipbuilders in all major shipbuilding countries have realized this and are more aggressively marketing slots again in advance in order to secure orders which demand a lower cost of construction.
During the same period in the S&P market, volatility prevailed. As far as LME Panamaxes are concerned, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at rgn m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in just 14 months. The current correction notoriously commenced back in June with the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd which marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ sold just 3 months earlier (in March 2014). Asset values were brought back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. This week’s reported sale of 2008-built Japanese-built Kamsarmax Medi Sentosa at region 19.5musd to Greeks is marginally discounted when compared to the sale of ex-Stefania Lembo (82k, 2010, Tsuneishi – JPN) to Diana Shipping back in September 2013. Interestingly, the price correction for older tonnage Panamax tonnage is steeper. More than a month ago the Japanese controlled Panamax Bulker 'Mishima' (76600kdwt, 2002, Imabari, MAN B&W 6S60) was committed at rgn 12.5musd to Greeks very close to the levels of ex-Archon (75k, Hitachi, 2001, B&W 6S60) which was committed in the end of January 2013 (very close to the bottom) by Greeks at rgn 12.4musd. That said, as far as mid/late 90s Panamaxes the prices are concerned, these are currently very close to the previous bottom.
Two ongoing factors that we need to take into consideration are the weakening Japanese Yen and the price of Oil/Bunkers. The Japanese Yen, which declined to a seven year low versus the dollar, and its outlook after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly increased monetary stimulus that tends to devalue the currency, will further entice more Japanese owners and Builders to sell Vessels and Slots, respectively, and accept less dollars. Moving on to the price of oil, a rule of thumb is that a 10% decrease will increase 0.25% off global growth, while the lower price of Bunkers will hurt the newbuildings ‘eco’ story and will give some support to “non-eco” tonnage. Based on the recent history and the rock-bottom price resistance levels witnessed before, there may be longer-term value in Newbuilding and S&P deals priced south of current market levels.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 04 November 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.09 (-1.99%) month over month and increased US$ 0.31 (+0.58% ...
Monday, 03 November 14
ADARO PRODUCED 41.90MT OF COAL FOR FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2014
COALspot.com: Adaro’s coal production in the third quarter reached 14.03 Mt, a 2% increase compared to the same period of last year. Accordin ...
Monday, 03 November 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 2014 DELIVERY LOST 2.80% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery has decreased US$ 1.86 (-2.80%) month over month and increased US$ 0.37 ( ...
Monday, 03 November 14
INDONESIAN'S COAL EXPORTS JUMP IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producers and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.50 ...
Sunday, 02 November 14
CAPE INDEX WAS UP 46.65% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI and Cape index continued the strong upward trend this week. The BDI was up 19.80 pct and Cape index was up by 46.65 per ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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