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Wednesday, 05 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 COALspot.com: The steep appreciation in dry bulker values between late 2012 and March 2014 resulted in unrealistically expensive ship values compared to fundamentals and vessel’s earnings. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but while several owners attempted to offload tonnage acquired at rock-bottom prices only a dozen of owners managed to successfully do so.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Today, after the ongoing correction in newbuildings prices, we still stand well in excess of 10% above previous lows. We do not anticipate witnessing new lows in the Newbuildings market because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows. This is not only due to labor and maker’s inflation but also because of incoming new regulations (notably, Tier III engines, harmonized CSR, etc). Indeed, certain shipbuilders in all major shipbuilding countries have realized this and are more aggressively marketing slots again in advance in order to secure orders which demand a lower cost of construction.
During the same period in the S&P market, volatility prevailed. As far as LME Panamaxes are concerned, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at rgn m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in just 14 months. The current correction notoriously commenced back in June with the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd which marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ sold just 3 months earlier (in March 2014). Asset values were brought back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. This week’s reported sale of 2008-built Japanese-built Kamsarmax Medi Sentosa at region 19.5musd to Greeks is marginally discounted when compared to the sale of ex-Stefania Lembo (82k, 2010, Tsuneishi – JPN) to Diana Shipping back in September 2013. Interestingly, the price correction for older tonnage Panamax tonnage is steeper. More than a month ago the Japanese controlled Panamax Bulker 'Mishima' (76600kdwt, 2002, Imabari, MAN B&W 6S60) was committed at rgn 12.5musd to Greeks very close to the levels of ex-Archon (75k, Hitachi, 2001, B&W 6S60) which was committed in the end of January 2013 (very close to the bottom) by Greeks at rgn 12.4musd. That said, as far as mid/late 90s Panamaxes the prices are concerned, these are currently very close to the previous bottom.
Two ongoing factors that we need to take into consideration are the weakening Japanese Yen and the price of Oil/Bunkers. The Japanese Yen, which declined to a seven year low versus the dollar, and its outlook after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly increased monetary stimulus that tends to devalue the currency, will further entice more Japanese owners and Builders to sell Vessels and Slots, respectively, and accept less dollars. Moving on to the price of oil, a rule of thumb is that a 10% decrease will increase 0.25% off global growth, while the lower price of Bunkers will hurt the newbuildings ‘eco’ story and will give some support to “non-eco” tonnage. Based on the recent history and the rock-bottom price resistance levels witnessed before, there may be longer-term value in Newbuilding and S&P deals priced south of current market levels.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 09 November 14
CAPE INDEX UP 3.06%; PANAMAX INDEX FELL 4.05%
COALspot.com: The BDI was almost at same levels compared to last week closing or just increased 0.77 pct from last week. The BDI was closed at 1437 ...
Friday, 07 November 14
U.S. PRODUCED 85.60 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL IN OCTOBER, UP 2.88% M-O-M
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.0 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 06 November 14
THE ATLANTIC HAS REMAINED STRONG WITH A HEALTHY SUPPLY OF NEW CARGOES
Handy
This week has continued its slow trend in both hemispheres and even though rates are a bit up w-o-w it is not a clear sign for any improvem ...
Wednesday, 05 November 14
CAPESIZE SEGMENT ENJOYED FIRMING RATES ACROSS BOTH BASINS
Following a fantastic week in terms of rate performance for Capes, the Dry Bulk market managed to note another positive weekly closing, which stron ...
Tuesday, 04 November 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS FOR 2015 DELIVERIES SHOW A WEAK TREND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost month on month and gained day on day and week on week, the trend was same as las ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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