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Wednesday, 05 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 COALspot.com: The steep appreciation in dry bulker values between late 2012 and March 2014 resulted in unrealistically expensive ship values compared to fundamentals and vessel’s earnings. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but while several owners attempted to offload tonnage acquired at rock-bottom prices only a dozen of owners managed to successfully do so.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Today, after the ongoing correction in newbuildings prices, we still stand well in excess of 10% above previous lows. We do not anticipate witnessing new lows in the Newbuildings market because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows. This is not only due to labor and maker’s inflation but also because of incoming new regulations (notably, Tier III engines, harmonized CSR, etc). Indeed, certain shipbuilders in all major shipbuilding countries have realized this and are more aggressively marketing slots again in advance in order to secure orders which demand a lower cost of construction.
During the same period in the S&P market, volatility prevailed. As far as LME Panamaxes are concerned, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at rgn m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in just 14 months. The current correction notoriously commenced back in June with the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd which marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ sold just 3 months earlier (in March 2014). Asset values were brought back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. This week’s reported sale of 2008-built Japanese-built Kamsarmax Medi Sentosa at region 19.5musd to Greeks is marginally discounted when compared to the sale of ex-Stefania Lembo (82k, 2010, Tsuneishi – JPN) to Diana Shipping back in September 2013. Interestingly, the price correction for older tonnage Panamax tonnage is steeper. More than a month ago the Japanese controlled Panamax Bulker 'Mishima' (76600kdwt, 2002, Imabari, MAN B&W 6S60) was committed at rgn 12.5musd to Greeks very close to the levels of ex-Archon (75k, Hitachi, 2001, B&W 6S60) which was committed in the end of January 2013 (very close to the bottom) by Greeks at rgn 12.4musd. That said, as far as mid/late 90s Panamaxes the prices are concerned, these are currently very close to the previous bottom.
Two ongoing factors that we need to take into consideration are the weakening Japanese Yen and the price of Oil/Bunkers. The Japanese Yen, which declined to a seven year low versus the dollar, and its outlook after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly increased monetary stimulus that tends to devalue the currency, will further entice more Japanese owners and Builders to sell Vessels and Slots, respectively, and accept less dollars. Moving on to the price of oil, a rule of thumb is that a 10% decrease will increase 0.25% off global growth, while the lower price of Bunkers will hurt the newbuildings ‘eco’ story and will give some support to “non-eco” tonnage. Based on the recent history and the rock-bottom price resistance levels witnessed before, there may be longer-term value in Newbuilding and S&P deals priced south of current market levels.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 11 November 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE'S OCTOBER COAL SHIPMENTS SLIPPED 7.40% M-O-M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1,115.7 mil ...
Monday, 10 November 14
Q4' 15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED LOWER THAN Q1' 15 CLOSING PRICE OF US$ 49.58 ON LAST FRIDAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week on week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost just US$ ...
Monday, 10 November 14
SGX'S API 4 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 65.44 ON 7 NOV, LOST 4.08% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 2.78 (-4.08%) month over month and US$ 1.41 (-2.11%) w ...
Monday, 10 November 14
MOZAMBIQUE SIGNED CONTRACT WITH ETA STAR OF UAE FOR OPEN CAST COAL MINE IN TETE - AIM
- ETA Star to build slurry pipeline over the 600 kilometers to Beira in Mozambique to transport coal.
- The viability studies show the presence o ...
Monday, 10 November 14
YEAR 2015 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SHOWS A WEAK TREND THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 3.74 (-5.63%) month over month and US$ 2.19 (+3.37%) we ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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