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Wednesday, 05 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 COALspot.com: The steep appreciation in dry bulker values between late 2012 and March 2014 resulted in unrealistically expensive ship values compared to fundamentals and vessel’s earnings. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but while several owners attempted to offload tonnage acquired at rock-bottom prices only a dozen of owners managed to successfully do so.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Today, after the ongoing correction in newbuildings prices, we still stand well in excess of 10% above previous lows. We do not anticipate witnessing new lows in the Newbuildings market because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows. This is not only due to labor and maker’s inflation but also because of incoming new regulations (notably, Tier III engines, harmonized CSR, etc). Indeed, certain shipbuilders in all major shipbuilding countries have realized this and are more aggressively marketing slots again in advance in order to secure orders which demand a lower cost of construction.
During the same period in the S&P market, volatility prevailed. As far as LME Panamaxes are concerned, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at rgn m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in just 14 months. The current correction notoriously commenced back in June with the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd which marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ sold just 3 months earlier (in March 2014). Asset values were brought back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. This week’s reported sale of 2008-built Japanese-built Kamsarmax Medi Sentosa at region 19.5musd to Greeks is marginally discounted when compared to the sale of ex-Stefania Lembo (82k, 2010, Tsuneishi – JPN) to Diana Shipping back in September 2013. Interestingly, the price correction for older tonnage Panamax tonnage is steeper. More than a month ago the Japanese controlled Panamax Bulker 'Mishima' (76600kdwt, 2002, Imabari, MAN B&W 6S60) was committed at rgn 12.5musd to Greeks very close to the levels of ex-Archon (75k, Hitachi, 2001, B&W 6S60) which was committed in the end of January 2013 (very close to the bottom) by Greeks at rgn 12.4musd. That said, as far as mid/late 90s Panamaxes the prices are concerned, these are currently very close to the previous bottom.
Two ongoing factors that we need to take into consideration are the weakening Japanese Yen and the price of Oil/Bunkers. The Japanese Yen, which declined to a seven year low versus the dollar, and its outlook after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly increased monetary stimulus that tends to devalue the currency, will further entice more Japanese owners and Builders to sell Vessels and Slots, respectively, and accept less dollars. Moving on to the price of oil, a rule of thumb is that a 10% decrease will increase 0.25% off global growth, while the lower price of Bunkers will hurt the newbuildings ‘eco’ story and will give some support to “non-eco” tonnage. Based on the recent history and the rock-bottom price resistance levels witnessed before, there may be longer-term value in Newbuilding and S&P deals priced south of current market levels.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 14 November 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER 08
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 14 November 14
MORE NATURAL GAS FROM RUSSIA TO HELP STABILISE CHINA PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings has said possible additional natural gas supplies from Russia's OAO Gazprom to China via the Altai pipeline would h ...
Thursday, 13 November 14
SLOWER AND LOWER HAS BEEN THE TREND OF THE PANAMAX IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Handy
We are experiencing an oversupply of tonnage in the Atlantic which is out numbering the amount of cargoes, Fearnleys broker says in its lat ...
Thursday, 13 November 14
DRY BULK MARKET'S REBOUND HINGES ON IRON ORE OVERSUPPLY ISSUES MOVING FORWARD - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
“One man’s benefit, is another man’s demise” is a phrase which can be used to describe today’s situation in the dry b ...
Thursday, 13 November 14
COAL MINISTER WANTS INDIA TO STOP COAL IMPORTS IN TWO OR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: India to ramp up coal production to a billion tonnes by 2019 from its current level of 490 million tones. According to Power and Coal ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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