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Wednesday, 05 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 COALspot.com: The steep appreciation in dry bulker values between late 2012 and March 2014 resulted in unrealistically expensive ship values compared to fundamentals and vessel’s earnings. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but while several owners attempted to offload tonnage acquired at rock-bottom prices only a dozen of owners managed to successfully do so.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Today, after the ongoing correction in newbuildings prices, we still stand well in excess of 10% above previous lows. We do not anticipate witnessing new lows in the Newbuildings market because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows. This is not only due to labor and maker’s inflation but also because of incoming new regulations (notably, Tier III engines, harmonized CSR, etc). Indeed, certain shipbuilders in all major shipbuilding countries have realized this and are more aggressively marketing slots again in advance in order to secure orders which demand a lower cost of construction.
During the same period in the S&P market, volatility prevailed. As far as LME Panamaxes are concerned, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at rgn m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in just 14 months. The current correction notoriously commenced back in June with the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd which marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ sold just 3 months earlier (in March 2014). Asset values were brought back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. This week’s reported sale of 2008-built Japanese-built Kamsarmax Medi Sentosa at region 19.5musd to Greeks is marginally discounted when compared to the sale of ex-Stefania Lembo (82k, 2010, Tsuneishi – JPN) to Diana Shipping back in September 2013. Interestingly, the price correction for older tonnage Panamax tonnage is steeper. More than a month ago the Japanese controlled Panamax Bulker 'Mishima' (76600kdwt, 2002, Imabari, MAN B&W 6S60) was committed at rgn 12.5musd to Greeks very close to the levels of ex-Archon (75k, Hitachi, 2001, B&W 6S60) which was committed in the end of January 2013 (very close to the bottom) by Greeks at rgn 12.4musd. That said, as far as mid/late 90s Panamaxes the prices are concerned, these are currently very close to the previous bottom.
Two ongoing factors that we need to take into consideration are the weakening Japanese Yen and the price of Oil/Bunkers. The Japanese Yen, which declined to a seven year low versus the dollar, and its outlook after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly increased monetary stimulus that tends to devalue the currency, will further entice more Japanese owners and Builders to sell Vessels and Slots, respectively, and accept less dollars. Moving on to the price of oil, a rule of thumb is that a 10% decrease will increase 0.25% off global growth, while the lower price of Bunkers will hurt the newbuildings ‘eco’ story and will give some support to “non-eco” tonnage. Based on the recent history and the rock-bottom price resistance levels witnessed before, there may be longer-term value in Newbuilding and S&P deals priced south of current market levels.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 19 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - BY KATERINA RESTIS
The current Ebola outbreak in West Africa has been declared as a worldwide health emergency by the World Health Organization and has had a great im ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
VALEMAX DEAL TO DETERMINE DRY BULK MARKET'S FATE - DREWRY MARITIME RESEARCH
Vale’s accord to sell and lease four Valemax vessels to COSCO might have negative repercussions on dry bulk freight rates. Vale has committed ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DELIVERY Q2' 2015 CLOSED AT $ 49.55; DOWN 4.10% M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, gained week on week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 66.31; UP 1.33% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has gained US$ 0.27 (+0.41%) month over month and US$ 0.87 (+1.33%) week ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
CHEAP OIL PRICES COULD RESHAPE GLOBAL OIL EXPORTING MAP - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Tanker owners have enjoyed a rather healthy 2014, but as the year draws to a close, the fall of oil prices is bound to reshape traditional, as well ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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