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Wednesday, 05 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 COALspot.com: The steep appreciation in dry bulker values between late 2012 and March 2014 resulted in unrealistically expensive ship values compared to fundamentals and vessel’s earnings. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but while several owners attempted to offload tonnage acquired at rock-bottom prices only a dozen of owners managed to successfully do so.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Today, after the ongoing correction in newbuildings prices, we still stand well in excess of 10% above previous lows. We do not anticipate witnessing new lows in the Newbuildings market because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows. This is not only due to labor and maker’s inflation but also because of incoming new regulations (notably, Tier III engines, harmonized CSR, etc). Indeed, certain shipbuilders in all major shipbuilding countries have realized this and are more aggressively marketing slots again in advance in order to secure orders which demand a lower cost of construction.
During the same period in the S&P market, volatility prevailed. As far as LME Panamaxes are concerned, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at rgn m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in just 14 months. The current correction notoriously commenced back in June with the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd which marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ sold just 3 months earlier (in March 2014). Asset values were brought back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. This week’s reported sale of 2008-built Japanese-built Kamsarmax Medi Sentosa at region 19.5musd to Greeks is marginally discounted when compared to the sale of ex-Stefania Lembo (82k, 2010, Tsuneishi – JPN) to Diana Shipping back in September 2013. Interestingly, the price correction for older tonnage Panamax tonnage is steeper. More than a month ago the Japanese controlled Panamax Bulker 'Mishima' (76600kdwt, 2002, Imabari, MAN B&W 6S60) was committed at rgn 12.5musd to Greeks very close to the levels of ex-Archon (75k, Hitachi, 2001, B&W 6S60) which was committed in the end of January 2013 (very close to the bottom) by Greeks at rgn 12.4musd. That said, as far as mid/late 90s Panamaxes the prices are concerned, these are currently very close to the previous bottom.
Two ongoing factors that we need to take into consideration are the weakening Japanese Yen and the price of Oil/Bunkers. The Japanese Yen, which declined to a seven year low versus the dollar, and its outlook after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly increased monetary stimulus that tends to devalue the currency, will further entice more Japanese owners and Builders to sell Vessels and Slots, respectively, and accept less dollars. Moving on to the price of oil, a rule of thumb is that a 10% decrease will increase 0.25% off global growth, while the lower price of Bunkers will hurt the newbuildings ‘eco’ story and will give some support to “non-eco” tonnage. Based on the recent history and the rock-bottom price resistance levels witnessed before, there may be longer-term value in Newbuilding and S&P deals priced south of current market levels.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 17 November 14
SKULD ISSUES URGENT NOTICE ON BANKRUPTCY OF OW BUNKER A/S
Further to the Association’s advices of 7 November 2014, more information has come to light with respect to the potential impact and scale of ...
Monday, 17 November 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES FREE FALL; SLUMPS TO 69-MONTH LOW
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in November. HBA for t ...
Monday, 17 November 14
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 52.75
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 1.77 (-3.25%) month over month and US$ 0.02 (-0.04%) day ...
Monday, 17 November 14
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY INCREASED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 1.73 (-2.67%) month over month and US$ 0.10 (-0.16%) da ...
Sunday, 16 November 14
THE BDI LOST 12.59% WEEK ON WEEK; THE BCI LOST 19.95%
COALspot.com: The BDI fell 12.59 percent to 1256 point week on week on Friday 14 November. All the segments were also most down this week. The cape ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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