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Wednesday, 05 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 COALspot.com: The steep appreciation in dry bulker values between late 2012 and March 2014 resulted in unrealistically expensive ship values compared to fundamentals and vessel’s earnings. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but while several owners attempted to offload tonnage acquired at rock-bottom prices only a dozen of owners managed to successfully do so.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Today, after the ongoing correction in newbuildings prices, we still stand well in excess of 10% above previous lows. We do not anticipate witnessing new lows in the Newbuildings market because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows. This is not only due to labor and maker’s inflation but also because of incoming new regulations (notably, Tier III engines, harmonized CSR, etc). Indeed, certain shipbuilders in all major shipbuilding countries have realized this and are more aggressively marketing slots again in advance in order to secure orders which demand a lower cost of construction.
During the same period in the S&P market, volatility prevailed. As far as LME Panamaxes are concerned, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at rgn m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in just 14 months. The current correction notoriously commenced back in June with the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd which marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ sold just 3 months earlier (in March 2014). Asset values were brought back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. This week’s reported sale of 2008-built Japanese-built Kamsarmax Medi Sentosa at region 19.5musd to Greeks is marginally discounted when compared to the sale of ex-Stefania Lembo (82k, 2010, Tsuneishi – JPN) to Diana Shipping back in September 2013. Interestingly, the price correction for older tonnage Panamax tonnage is steeper. More than a month ago the Japanese controlled Panamax Bulker 'Mishima' (76600kdwt, 2002, Imabari, MAN B&W 6S60) was committed at rgn 12.5musd to Greeks very close to the levels of ex-Archon (75k, Hitachi, 2001, B&W 6S60) which was committed in the end of January 2013 (very close to the bottom) by Greeks at rgn 12.4musd. That said, as far as mid/late 90s Panamaxes the prices are concerned, these are currently very close to the previous bottom.
Two ongoing factors that we need to take into consideration are the weakening Japanese Yen and the price of Oil/Bunkers. The Japanese Yen, which declined to a seven year low versus the dollar, and its outlook after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly increased monetary stimulus that tends to devalue the currency, will further entice more Japanese owners and Builders to sell Vessels and Slots, respectively, and accept less dollars. Moving on to the price of oil, a rule of thumb is that a 10% decrease will increase 0.25% off global growth, while the lower price of Bunkers will hurt the newbuildings ‘eco’ story and will give some support to “non-eco” tonnage. Based on the recent history and the rock-bottom price resistance levels witnessed before, there may be longer-term value in Newbuilding and S&P deals priced south of current market levels.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 20 November 14
MOST MAJOR ASIAN ECONOMIES TO BENEFIT FROM LOWER OIL - FITCH
COALspot.com: The 25% drop in the price of oil since July is likely to lift economic growth prospects, improve terms of trade, and have a pot ...
Thursday, 20 November 14
HANDY: INDO ROUNDS ARE BEING FIXED IN REGION OF US$ 10K - FEARNLEYS
Handy
In the Atlantic we have experienced firmer rates this week much lead by the grain activity out of USG. Vsls open in the USG can achieve in ...
Thursday, 20 November 14
DEMAND FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS INCREASES ON THE BACK OF HEIGHTENED FREIGHT RATE MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship owners are looking to take advantage of favorable market conditions through the acquisition of more dry bulk carriers. According to shipbroker ...
Wednesday, 19 November 14
INDONESIA FUEL-PRICE RISE A CLEAR, POSITIVE REFORM SIGNAL - FITCH
COALspot.com: Indonesia's hike of more than 30% in administered fuel prices, announced on 17 November, provides a clear, positive signal of the ...
Wednesday, 19 November 14
CAPES WERE UNDER PRESSURE; LOST 20% WITHIN A WEEK
COALspot.com: " The negative environment in which the week prior ended, marked this past week as well, which closed off on Friday noting the f ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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