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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Wednesday, 01 October 14
ASIAN THERMAL COAL PRICES TO REMAIN WEAK ON OVERSUPPLY - FITCH
COALspot.com: The thermal coal market in Asia will remain oversupplied in the next 12 months, in spite of on-going rationalisation of production, a ...
Wednesday, 01 October 14
PANAMAXES: DEFENSIVE, STRUGGLING TO KEEP ANY FURTHER DECREASES - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market seemed unable to shake off the trend of the week prior and the BDI remained on a downward slope for the bigger pa ...
Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the down ...
Tuesday, 30 September 14
COALVIEW TO PARTICIPATE AT MET COKE WORLD SUMMIT 2014 IN CHICAGO
COALspot.com: Coalview Ltd., LLC(“Coalview”) America's leading fully integrated coal technology and fine coal recovery company prov ...
Monday, 29 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORT VOLUME FALL IN AUGUST
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producers and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.50 ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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