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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Wednesday, 08 October 14
IS THERE ANY BRIGHT SIDE ON THE DRY BULK SEGMENT? - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
In the movie “Life Of Brian”, a character on a nearby cross was singing the famous “Always look on the bright side of life” ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
TAIPOWER TO IMPORT 525K MT OF LOW ASH AND EXTRA LOW SULFUR SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 525,000 metric tons of low ash and extra low sulfur sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWS A FLAT TO WEAK TREND THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps November 2014 delivery flat week on week and gained US$ 0.10 (-0.20%) per mt day on day. The swap also lost US$ ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
THE RIO TINTO CONFIRMS THAT NO DISCUSSIONS ARE TAKING PLACE WITH GLENCORE
COALspot.com: The board of Rio Tinto notes the recent press speculation regarding a possible combination of Rio Tinto and Glencore.The Rio Tinto bo ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP HEADED SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in November 2014 decreased US$ 1.10 (-1.64%) month over month and US$ 0.25 (-0.38%) ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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