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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Wednesday, 08 October 14
IS THERE ANY BRIGHT SIDE ON THE DRY BULK SEGMENT? - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
In the movie “Life Of Brian”, a character on a nearby cross was singing the famous “Always look on the bright side of life” ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
TAIPOWER TO IMPORT 525K MT OF LOW ASH AND EXTRA LOW SULFUR SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 525,000 metric tons of low ash and extra low sulfur sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWS A FLAT TO WEAK TREND THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps November 2014 delivery flat week on week and gained US$ 0.10 (-0.20%) per mt day on day. The swap also lost US$ ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
THE RIO TINTO CONFIRMS THAT NO DISCUSSIONS ARE TAKING PLACE WITH GLENCORE
COALspot.com: The board of Rio Tinto notes the recent press speculation regarding a possible combination of Rio Tinto and Glencore.The Rio Tinto bo ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP HEADED SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in November 2014 decreased US$ 1.10 (-1.64%) month over month and US$ 0.25 (-0.38%) ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
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