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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Monday, 29 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS LOST WEEK ON WEEK AND MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average November 2014 flat day on day and lost US$ 0.85 (-1.66%) per mt week on week. The swap also lost US ...
Monday, 29 September 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL LOST AROUND 5% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in November 2014 decreased US$ 3.55 (-5.10%) month over month and flat week over week.
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Sunday, 28 September 14
FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market shows a bit weak trend this week.
The BDI was lost 2.42% week on week and closed at 1049 points on 26 Se ...
Sunday, 28 September 14
BERAU AGREES DEAL WITH GOVT, MINING AREA REDUCED - THE JAKARTA POST
Coal miner PT Berau Coal, a subsidiary of Jakarta-listed PT Berau Coal Energy (BRAU), has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the gover ...
Saturday, 27 September 14
OIL MARKET CONTANGO: SPECULATION ON FUTURE PRICES CAN BE A RISKY MOVE, EVEN FOR TANKER OWNERS HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that tanker owners can easily use their vessels as floating storage units for oil, in a bid to exploit the current oil market dyna ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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