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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Monday, 06 October 14
' COAL-BY-WIRE' FROM SUMATRA TO JAVA - THE JAKARTA POST
Coal from the island of Sumatra accounts for most of Indonesia’s low-grade lignite, a low-quality coal that receives a poor price in internat ...
Monday, 06 October 14
THE IRON ORE SHIPPING BUSINESS IS FACING SOME ROUGH SEAS - EAST ASIA FORUM
The impact of Chinese demand on global iron ore prices is well known. A less acknowledged consequence of China’s emergence is the transformat ...
Sunday, 05 October 14
BALTIC DRY INDEX SLIPS 1.14%; BALTIC PANAMAX INDEX GAINED 9.91% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was down by 1.14 pct and closed at 1037 points this Friday.
The Cape index was down significantly week on week or lost 5 ...
Friday, 03 October 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.8% TO 19.9 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.9 million short tons (mmst) of co ...
Thursday, 02 October 14
CAPESIZE - DULL AND WITHOUT MUCH DIRECTION AS IRON ORE AND COAL VOLUMES FAIL TO LIVE UP EXPECTATIONS
Handy
After the recent weeks´ rate increase in the Atlantic we see Panamaxes snapping up handymax and Supra cargoes at much lower levels, p ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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