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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Monday, 06 October 14
' COAL-BY-WIRE' FROM SUMATRA TO JAVA - THE JAKARTA POST
Coal from the island of Sumatra accounts for most of Indonesia’s low-grade lignite, a low-quality coal that receives a poor price in internat ...
Monday, 06 October 14
THE IRON ORE SHIPPING BUSINESS IS FACING SOME ROUGH SEAS - EAST ASIA FORUM
The impact of Chinese demand on global iron ore prices is well known. A less acknowledged consequence of China’s emergence is the transformat ...
Sunday, 05 October 14
BALTIC DRY INDEX SLIPS 1.14%; BALTIC PANAMAX INDEX GAINED 9.91% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was down by 1.14 pct and closed at 1037 points this Friday.
The Cape index was down significantly week on week or lost 5 ...
Friday, 03 October 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.8% TO 19.9 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.9 million short tons (mmst) of co ...
Thursday, 02 October 14
CAPESIZE - DULL AND WITHOUT MUCH DIRECTION AS IRON ORE AND COAL VOLUMES FAIL TO LIVE UP EXPECTATIONS
Handy
After the recent weeks´ rate increase in the Atlantic we see Panamaxes snapping up handymax and Supra cargoes at much lower levels, p ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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