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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Monday, 06 October 14
' COAL-BY-WIRE' FROM SUMATRA TO JAVA - THE JAKARTA POST
Coal from the island of Sumatra accounts for most of Indonesia’s low-grade lignite, a low-quality coal that receives a poor price in internat ...
Monday, 06 October 14
THE IRON ORE SHIPPING BUSINESS IS FACING SOME ROUGH SEAS - EAST ASIA FORUM
The impact of Chinese demand on global iron ore prices is well known. A less acknowledged consequence of China’s emergence is the transformat ...
Sunday, 05 October 14
BALTIC DRY INDEX SLIPS 1.14%; BALTIC PANAMAX INDEX GAINED 9.91% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was down by 1.14 pct and closed at 1037 points this Friday.
The Cape index was down significantly week on week or lost 5 ...
Friday, 03 October 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.8% TO 19.9 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.9 million short tons (mmst) of co ...
Thursday, 02 October 14
CAPESIZE - DULL AND WITHOUT MUCH DIRECTION AS IRON ORE AND COAL VOLUMES FAIL TO LIVE UP EXPECTATIONS
Handy
After the recent weeks´ rate increase in the Atlantic we see Panamaxes snapping up handymax and Supra cargoes at much lower levels, p ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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