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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Monday, 13 October 14
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 54.92, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2014 decreased US$ 0.80 (-1.46%) month over month and US$ 0.52 (-0.95%) week over ...
Monday, 13 October 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS FOR DELIVERY Q4' 2014 GAINED WEEK ON WEEK AND DAY ON DAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 gained week on week and day on day.
The swap lost US$ 0.13 (-0.25%) month on mon ...
Monday, 13 October 14
Q1' 2015 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 0.31 PMT HIGHER THAN Q4' 2014 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 0.66 (-1.00%) month over month and US$ 0.40 (-0.61%) ...
Sunday, 12 October 14
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: This week all the segments softened. The BDI down 7.13 pct week on week and closed below 1000 points at 963 points.
The Cape ind ...
Saturday, 11 October 14
COAL PRODUCTION RISES ONLY SLIGHTLY AS GOVT LIMITS MINING OPERATIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesian coal production rose by only 4 percent in the first nine months of this year, a relatively low increase compared to previous years, as t ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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