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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Monday, 13 October 14
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 54.92, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2014 decreased US$ 0.80 (-1.46%) month over month and US$ 0.52 (-0.95%) week over ...
Monday, 13 October 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS FOR DELIVERY Q4' 2014 GAINED WEEK ON WEEK AND DAY ON DAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 gained week on week and day on day.
The swap lost US$ 0.13 (-0.25%) month on mon ...
Monday, 13 October 14
Q1' 2015 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 0.31 PMT HIGHER THAN Q4' 2014 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 0.66 (-1.00%) month over month and US$ 0.40 (-0.61%) ...
Sunday, 12 October 14
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: This week all the segments softened. The BDI down 7.13 pct week on week and closed below 1000 points at 963 points.
The Cape ind ...
Saturday, 11 October 14
COAL PRODUCTION RISES ONLY SLIGHTLY AS GOVT LIMITS MINING OPERATIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesian coal production rose by only 4 percent in the first nine months of this year, a relatively low increase compared to previous years, as t ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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