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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Monday, 13 October 14
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 54.92, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2014 decreased US$ 0.80 (-1.46%) month over month and US$ 0.52 (-0.95%) week over ...
Monday, 13 October 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS FOR DELIVERY Q4' 2014 GAINED WEEK ON WEEK AND DAY ON DAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 gained week on week and day on day.
The swap lost US$ 0.13 (-0.25%) month on mon ...
Monday, 13 October 14
Q1' 2015 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 0.31 PMT HIGHER THAN Q4' 2014 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 0.66 (-1.00%) month over month and US$ 0.40 (-0.61%) ...
Sunday, 12 October 14
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: This week all the segments softened. The BDI down 7.13 pct week on week and closed below 1000 points at 963 points.
The Cape ind ...
Saturday, 11 October 14
COAL PRODUCTION RISES ONLY SLIGHTLY AS GOVT LIMITS MINING OPERATIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesian coal production rose by only 4 percent in the first nine months of this year, a relatively low increase compared to previous years, as t ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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