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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 02 October 14
CAPESIZE - DULL AND WITHOUT MUCH DIRECTION AS IRON ORE AND COAL VOLUMES FAIL TO LIVE UP EXPECTATIONS
Handy
After the recent weeks´ rate increase in the Atlantic we see Panamaxes snapping up handymax and Supra cargoes at much lower levels, p ...
Wednesday, 01 October 14
ASIAN THERMAL COAL PRICES TO REMAIN WEAK ON OVERSUPPLY - FITCH
COALspot.com: The thermal coal market in Asia will remain oversupplied in the next 12 months, in spite of on-going rationalisation of production, a ...
Wednesday, 01 October 14
PANAMAXES: DEFENSIVE, STRUGGLING TO KEEP ANY FURTHER DECREASES - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market seemed unable to shake off the trend of the week prior and the BDI remained on a downward slope for the bigger pa ...
Tuesday, 30 September 14
COALVIEW TO PARTICIPATE AT MET COKE WORLD SUMMIT 2014 IN CHICAGO
COALspot.com: Coalview Ltd., LLC(“Coalview”) America's leading fully integrated coal technology and fine coal recovery company prov ...
Monday, 29 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORT VOLUME FALL IN AUGUST
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producers and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.50 ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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