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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 02 October 14
CAPESIZE - DULL AND WITHOUT MUCH DIRECTION AS IRON ORE AND COAL VOLUMES FAIL TO LIVE UP EXPECTATIONS
Handy
After the recent weeks´ rate increase in the Atlantic we see Panamaxes snapping up handymax and Supra cargoes at much lower levels, p ...
Wednesday, 01 October 14
ASIAN THERMAL COAL PRICES TO REMAIN WEAK ON OVERSUPPLY - FITCH
COALspot.com: The thermal coal market in Asia will remain oversupplied in the next 12 months, in spite of on-going rationalisation of production, a ...
Wednesday, 01 October 14
PANAMAXES: DEFENSIVE, STRUGGLING TO KEEP ANY FURTHER DECREASES - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market seemed unable to shake off the trend of the week prior and the BDI remained on a downward slope for the bigger pa ...
Tuesday, 30 September 14
COALVIEW TO PARTICIPATE AT MET COKE WORLD SUMMIT 2014 IN CHICAGO
COALspot.com: Coalview Ltd., LLC(“Coalview”) America's leading fully integrated coal technology and fine coal recovery company prov ...
Monday, 29 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORT VOLUME FALL IN AUGUST
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producers and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.50 ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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