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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 29 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS LOST WEEK ON WEEK AND MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average November 2014 flat day on day and lost US$ 0.85 (-1.66%) per mt week on week. The swap also lost US ...
Monday, 29 September 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL LOST AROUND 5% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in November 2014 decreased US$ 3.55 (-5.10%) month over month and flat week over week.
...
Sunday, 28 September 14
FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market shows a bit weak trend this week.
The BDI was lost 2.42% week on week and closed at 1049 points on 26 Se ...
Sunday, 28 September 14
BERAU AGREES DEAL WITH GOVT, MINING AREA REDUCED - THE JAKARTA POST
Coal miner PT Berau Coal, a subsidiary of Jakarta-listed PT Berau Coal Energy (BRAU), has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the gover ...
Saturday, 27 September 14
OIL MARKET CONTANGO: SPECULATION ON FUTURE PRICES CAN BE A RISKY MOVE, EVEN FOR TANKER OWNERS HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that tanker owners can easily use their vessels as floating storage units for oil, in a bid to exploit the current oil market dyna ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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