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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 07 October 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP HEADED SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in November 2014 decreased US$ 1.10 (-1.64%) month over month and US$ 0.25 (-0.38%) ...
Monday, 06 October 14
' COAL-BY-WIRE' FROM SUMATRA TO JAVA - THE JAKARTA POST
Coal from the island of Sumatra accounts for most of Indonesia’s low-grade lignite, a low-quality coal that receives a poor price in internat ...
Monday, 06 October 14
THE IRON ORE SHIPPING BUSINESS IS FACING SOME ROUGH SEAS - EAST ASIA FORUM
The impact of Chinese demand on global iron ore prices is well known. A less acknowledged consequence of China’s emergence is the transformat ...
Sunday, 05 October 14
BALTIC DRY INDEX SLIPS 1.14%; BALTIC PANAMAX INDEX GAINED 9.91% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was down by 1.14 pct and closed at 1037 points this Friday.
The Cape index was down significantly week on week or lost 5 ...
Friday, 03 October 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.8% TO 19.9 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.9 million short tons (mmst) of co ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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