We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 07 October 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP HEADED SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in November 2014 decreased US$ 1.10 (-1.64%) month over month and US$ 0.25 (-0.38%) ...
Monday, 06 October 14
' COAL-BY-WIRE' FROM SUMATRA TO JAVA - THE JAKARTA POST
Coal from the island of Sumatra accounts for most of Indonesia’s low-grade lignite, a low-quality coal that receives a poor price in internat ...
Monday, 06 October 14
THE IRON ORE SHIPPING BUSINESS IS FACING SOME ROUGH SEAS - EAST ASIA FORUM
The impact of Chinese demand on global iron ore prices is well known. A less acknowledged consequence of China’s emergence is the transformat ...
Sunday, 05 October 14
BALTIC DRY INDEX SLIPS 1.14%; BALTIC PANAMAX INDEX GAINED 9.91% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was down by 1.14 pct and closed at 1037 points this Friday.
The Cape index was down significantly week on week or lost 5 ...
Friday, 03 October 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.8% TO 19.9 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.9 million short tons (mmst) of co ...
|
|
|
Showing 3451 to 3455 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
|
| |
| |
|
