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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting inv ...
Wednesday, 08 October 14
IS THERE ANY BRIGHT SIDE ON THE DRY BULK SEGMENT? - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
In the movie “Life Of Brian”, a character on a nearby cross was singing the famous “Always look on the bright side of life” ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
TAIPOWER TO IMPORT 525K MT OF LOW ASH AND EXTRA LOW SULFUR SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 525,000 metric tons of low ash and extra low sulfur sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWS A FLAT TO WEAK TREND THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps November 2014 delivery flat week on week and gained US$ 0.10 (-0.20%) per mt day on day. The swap also lost US$ ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
THE RIO TINTO CONFIRMS THAT NO DISCUSSIONS ARE TAKING PLACE WITH GLENCORE
COALspot.com: The board of Rio Tinto notes the recent press speculation regarding a possible combination of Rio Tinto and Glencore.The Rio Tinto bo ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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