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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 13 October 14
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 54.92, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2014 decreased US$ 0.80 (-1.46%) month over month and US$ 0.52 (-0.95%) week over ...
Monday, 13 October 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS FOR DELIVERY Q4' 2014 GAINED WEEK ON WEEK AND DAY ON DAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 gained week on week and day on day.
The swap lost US$ 0.13 (-0.25%) month on mon ...
Monday, 13 October 14
Q1' 2015 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 0.31 PMT HIGHER THAN Q4' 2014 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 0.66 (-1.00%) month over month and US$ 0.40 (-0.61%) ...
Sunday, 12 October 14
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: This week all the segments softened. The BDI down 7.13 pct week on week and closed below 1000 points at 963 points.
The Cape ind ...
Saturday, 11 October 14
COAL PRODUCTION RISES ONLY SLIGHTLY AS GOVT LIMITS MINING OPERATIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesian coal production rose by only 4 percent in the first nine months of this year, a relatively low increase compared to previous years, as t ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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