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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 15 October 14
SHIPOWNER NOT LIABLE FOR CARGO DAMAGE RESULTING FROM POOR STOWAGE - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Russian metal trading company Yuzhny Zavod Metall Profil (YZMP), the holder of a CONGEN 1994 bill of lading, took delivery o ...
Wednesday, 15 October 14
NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.96 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN SEPTEMBER; UP 5.72%
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1,227.7 wor ...
Tuesday, 14 October 14
KING COAL UNDER ATTACK? - EVA TZIMA
With the last quarter of the year being well underway and with no strong signs that the Dry Bulk market could be ready for a big positive reversal, ...
Tuesday, 14 October 14
THE NEW CHINESE TRANSPORTATION TAX LAW: WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR GREEK SHIPPING? - DELOITTE
China has recently promulgated a new law which imposes tax on profits from freights of inbound routes. The objective of the new tax law titled &ldq ...
Monday, 13 October 14
CHINESE COAL IMPORT TARIFFS YET ANOTHER BLOW TO AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS - TIM BUCKLEY
COALspot.com: China’s unexpected move to reintroduce thermal coal import tariffs of 6% will have a materially negative impact on the viabilit ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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