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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 16 October 14
PANAMAX OWNERS RECEIVE A PREMIUM FOR GOING TO INDIA VIA INDONESIA - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Handy/Supra market continues to slide in both hemispheres, said Fearnleys AS in its latest week report. In the Atlantic we see rates co ...
Thursday, 16 October 14
ARE WE GOING TO SHOOT OURSELVES IN THE FOOT ONCE AGAIN? - PANOS MAKRINOS
As the East part of our globe was coming back from its October holidays last week, everyone expected that the Dry Bulk market would follow suit and ...
Wednesday, 15 October 14
PANAMAX: ACTIVITY IN THE PACIFIC WAS UNIMPRESSIVE
The Dry Bulk market noted another weekly decline last week, while the BDI moved below 1,000 points taking down with it expectations that a post hol ...
Wednesday, 15 October 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL TO FRESH MULTI-YEAR LOWS IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in October 2014.
...
Wednesday, 15 October 14
DRY BULK SHIPPING: RATE IMPROVEMENTS ARRIVED AS FORECAST, BUT UNCERTAINTY MOUNTS FOR 2015 DEMAND - BIMCO
BIMCO released its latest short term assessment of the dry bulk market, estimating that over the October-November period, the level of Capesize TC ...
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Showing 3426 to 3430 news of total 6871 |
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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