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Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
 Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the downside. The contribution of major advanced economies (MAEs) to global expansion will gradually increase, while growth will remain subdued in emerging markets (EMs) after the cyclical trough this year. Fitch’s latest forecasts for world GDP growth (weighted at market exchange rates) are 2.6% in 2014, accelerating to 3% in 2015 and 3.1% 2016.
The 2014 and 2015 forecasts are both 0.1pp lower than in the June GEO. The downward revisions, similar to previous quarters, are mainly due to emerging markets. For the US economy Fitch maintains its forecast of robust GDP growth of 3.1% in 2015 and 3% in 2016, up from 2.2% in 2014. The economy rebounded strongly in 2Q14 after a temporary setback in 1Q14. Private consumption growth is underpinned by improving household income, wealth and confidence.
Investment should be supported by high corporate cash piles and profitability, low financing costs, rising confidence and capacity utilisation. Monetary policy remains highly accommodative and the drag from fiscal consolidation is significantly smaller than it was in 2013. We forecast eurozone GDP growth of 0.9% in 2014, followed by 1.3% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, slightly weaker than in the June GEO. Output stagnated in 2Q14 following four quarters of insipid growth, due primarily to a sharp slowdown in Germany.
Over the forecast horizon growth will be supported by the US and UK recoveries, euro depreciation, ECB policy loosening and an easing in the pace of fiscal consolidation. However, faltering recent outturns suggest deleveraging and structural constraints remain formidable headwinds, eroding potential benefits from improving external conditions or policy stimulus. High unemployment will persist and remain above 11% until 2016. Fitch’s base case is for eurozone inflation to be low at 0.5% in 2014, 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016, but for protracted deflation to be avoided. However, current low inflation, weak demand, a decline in market inflation expectations, policy challenges and the potential for self-reinforcing dynamics make deflation a meaningful and rising risk.
We forecast EM growth to slow sharply from 4.7% in 2013 to 4% in 2014, before recovering somewhat in 2015-16. Looming US monetary policy tightening, geo-political tensions and lower commodity prices pose downside risks. Brazil is now in recession and Russia close to it. Fitch expects both to see only a subdued recovery in 2015 and 2016, underperforming most MAEs over the forecast period.
Fitch expects China’s GDP growth to moderate to 7.2% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016 as it gradually rebalances while seeking to contain leverage. India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and accelerates further to 6.5% in 2015 and 2016, owing to an expected improvement in the business environment.
The underlying momentum of the Japanese economy is uncertain after sharper-than-expected contraction in 2Q14. We have revised down GDP growth to 1.4% in 2014, from 1.6% previously, and are maintaining our forecast of 1.3% for 2015 and 2016. Higher wage growth is central to Japan’s prospects of achieving sustainably higher real and nominal GDP growth. Growth in the UK has been strong and broad-based. Fitch is maintaining its forecast that growth will slow from 3% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016, as it moves to its medium-term potential rate of 2%-2.25%.
The base case is that nominal wage growth will pick up as the labour market slack is absorbed and the currently weak productivity growth will improve, in line with previous cyclical recoveries. The coming quarters will see increasing divergence of monetary conditions in MAEs after six years of synchronised, ultra-loose monetary stance.
Fitch expects the Fed and Bank of England to start gradually tightening policy over the next few quarters. Meanwhile, the ECB announced further easing measures at its September meeting and the Bank of Japan is continuing with its qualitative and quantitative easing strategy. The ECB and Bank of Japan are likely to keep interest rates unchanged until at least 2016. This GEO edition’s alternative scenario explores the global impact of a US interest rate shock. In this scenario the Federal Funds rate increases to 5% and the ten-year US yield reaches 6% by end-2016, triggered by an initial inflation shock as the economy runs out of spare capacity much sooner than policy makers and the markets currently expect.
Furthermore volatility spikes in global financial markets and leads to a 150 bps increase in global risk premium. Growth slows sharply in the US from mid-2015 and the economy stagnates in 2016. According to the simulation results the impact on MAEs is limited and stems mainly from lower US demand. Nevertheless the shock raises the risk of a new recession in the eurozone as the baseline recovery is so weak. In many EMs, central banks tighten monetary conditions due to the higher risk premium and inflation, despite the economic slowdown. Russia and Brazil would remain close to recession in 2015 and 2016, while India would slow sharply and China would be the least affected among the BRICs.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Sunday, 19 October 14
LOW DEMAND PUSHES DOWN COAL FREIGHT RATES; VOLATILITY CONTINUES
COALspot.com: This week all the segments softened including BDI except for Panamax index.
The BDI was down by1.70 pct and clsoed at 944 points ...
Friday, 17 October 14
INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES ARE AT LOWEST LEVEL; COAL STOCKS AT INDIAN POWER PLANTS ARE ALSO AT LOWEST LEVEL
International coal prices as well as coal freights are falling and reaching to its lowest levels. According to PTI, fuel stockpiles at the thermal ...
Friday, 17 October 14
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP BY 3.6% WEEK - ON - WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.20 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 17 October 14
DRY BULK SHIPPING'S OUTLOOK NOW SHIFTING TO A LESS PROMISING ONE, SHIP PRICES EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SOON - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
China’s and other Asian countries’ return to the dry bulk market last week, didn’t trigger the hoped support towards the dry bulk ...
Thursday, 16 October 14
KOREA MIDLAND POWER TO BUY 490K MT OF LCV COAL FOR 1Q 2015
COALspot.com : Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd. has invited bids through International open bidding for 490,000 Metric Tons (MT) of LCV (Sub) Bitumino ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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