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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Thursday, 25 September 14
LACK OF COAL BUSINESS PUSHING DOWN PANAMAX EARNINGS IN PACIFIC
Handy
In the Atlantic we see rates steady climbing upwards. More coal cargoes out of USG and USEC are helping the TA market which is up some USD ...
Wednesday, 24 September 14
ADARO AGREED TO REDUCE ITS CONCESSION AREA TO 31,379.8 HECTARES
COALspot.com: PT Adaro Energy Tbk (Adaro Energy) today announced that, PT Adaro Indonesia (AI), its wholly owned subsidiary, entered into a M ...
Wednesday, 24 September 14
CAPESIZE: ACTIVITY IN BOTH BASINS WAS UNIMPRESSIVE
COALspot.com: The end of the week prior seems to have marked the tone for the days that followed, with the Dry Bulk market giving up a significant ...
Tuesday, 23 September 14
MEDCO TO INCREASE ITS COAL PRODUCTION NEXT YEAR
COALspot.com: PT Medco Energi Internasional is looking to increase its coal production next year, supported by the launch of operations at its Duta ...
Monday, 22 September 14
COAL SECTOR CHAOS - GENESIS TO REVELATION - DIPESH DIPU
COALspot.com: “Let there be light”, intends the government of India but the fuel side of the story paints a blackout. The recent Suprem ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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