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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Thursday, 25 September 14
LACK OF COAL BUSINESS PUSHING DOWN PANAMAX EARNINGS IN PACIFIC
Handy
In the Atlantic we see rates steady climbing upwards. More coal cargoes out of USG and USEC are helping the TA market which is up some USD ...
Wednesday, 24 September 14
ADARO AGREED TO REDUCE ITS CONCESSION AREA TO 31,379.8 HECTARES
COALspot.com: PT Adaro Energy Tbk (Adaro Energy) today announced that, PT Adaro Indonesia (AI), its wholly owned subsidiary, entered into a M ...
Wednesday, 24 September 14
CAPESIZE: ACTIVITY IN BOTH BASINS WAS UNIMPRESSIVE
COALspot.com: The end of the week prior seems to have marked the tone for the days that followed, with the Dry Bulk market giving up a significant ...
Tuesday, 23 September 14
MEDCO TO INCREASE ITS COAL PRODUCTION NEXT YEAR
COALspot.com: PT Medco Energi Internasional is looking to increase its coal production next year, supported by the launch of operations at its Duta ...
Monday, 22 September 14
COAL SECTOR CHAOS - GENESIS TO REVELATION - DIPESH DIPU
COALspot.com: “Let there be light”, intends the government of India but the fuel side of the story paints a blackout. The recent Suprem ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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