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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Thursday, 25 September 14
LACK OF COAL BUSINESS PUSHING DOWN PANAMAX EARNINGS IN PACIFIC
Handy
In the Atlantic we see rates steady climbing upwards. More coal cargoes out of USG and USEC are helping the TA market which is up some USD ...
Wednesday, 24 September 14
ADARO AGREED TO REDUCE ITS CONCESSION AREA TO 31,379.8 HECTARES
COALspot.com: PT Adaro Energy Tbk (Adaro Energy) today announced that, PT Adaro Indonesia (AI), its wholly owned subsidiary, entered into a M ...
Wednesday, 24 September 14
CAPESIZE: ACTIVITY IN BOTH BASINS WAS UNIMPRESSIVE
COALspot.com: The end of the week prior seems to have marked the tone for the days that followed, with the Dry Bulk market giving up a significant ...
Tuesday, 23 September 14
MEDCO TO INCREASE ITS COAL PRODUCTION NEXT YEAR
COALspot.com: PT Medco Energi Internasional is looking to increase its coal production next year, supported by the launch of operations at its Duta ...
Monday, 22 September 14
COAL SECTOR CHAOS - GENESIS TO REVELATION - DIPESH DIPU
COALspot.com: “Let there be light”, intends the government of India but the fuel side of the story paints a blackout. The recent Suprem ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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