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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Thursday, 02 October 14
CAPESIZE - DULL AND WITHOUT MUCH DIRECTION AS IRON ORE AND COAL VOLUMES FAIL TO LIVE UP EXPECTATIONS
Handy
After the recent weeks´ rate increase in the Atlantic we see Panamaxes snapping up handymax and Supra cargoes at much lower levels, p ...
Wednesday, 01 October 14
ASIAN THERMAL COAL PRICES TO REMAIN WEAK ON OVERSUPPLY - FITCH
COALspot.com: The thermal coal market in Asia will remain oversupplied in the next 12 months, in spite of on-going rationalisation of production, a ...
Wednesday, 01 October 14
PANAMAXES: DEFENSIVE, STRUGGLING TO KEEP ANY FURTHER DECREASES - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market seemed unable to shake off the trend of the week prior and the BDI remained on a downward slope for the bigger pa ...
Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the down ...
Tuesday, 30 September 14
COALVIEW TO PARTICIPATE AT MET COKE WORLD SUMMIT 2014 IN CHICAGO
COALspot.com: Coalview Ltd., LLC(“Coalview”) America's leading fully integrated coal technology and fine coal recovery company prov ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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