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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Saturday, 27 September 14
OIL MARKET CONTANGO: SPECULATION ON FUTURE PRICES CAN BE A RISKY MOVE, EVEN FOR TANKER OWNERS HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that tanker owners can easily use their vessels as floating storage units for oil, in a bid to exploit the current oil market dyna ...
Saturday, 27 September 14
MORE COAL MINERS AGREE TO AMEND CONTRACTS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry is in a rush to beat a deadline for the conclusion of numerous memorandums of understanding (MoUs) with t ...
Friday, 26 September 14
INDIA SUPREME COURT RULING TO HIT STEEL, UTILITY EARNINGS, SAYS FITCH
COALspot.com: The 24 September Supreme Court of India (SCI) decision to cancel almost every coal block allocation since 1993 will have a negative f ...
Friday, 26 September 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FELL 1.8% WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.80 million short tons (mmst) of c ...
Friday, 26 September 14
ORACLE SIGNS EPC FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT WITH SEPCO FOR COAL MINE AND POWER PLANT IN PAKISTAN
COALspot.com: Oracle Coalfields PLC, the UK developer of a lignite coal mine and power plant in the south-eastern Sindh Province, Pakistan, has ann ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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