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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Tuesday, 07 October 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP HEADED SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in November 2014 decreased US$ 1.10 (-1.64%) month over month and US$ 0.25 (-0.38%) ...
Monday, 06 October 14
' COAL-BY-WIRE' FROM SUMATRA TO JAVA - THE JAKARTA POST
Coal from the island of Sumatra accounts for most of Indonesia’s low-grade lignite, a low-quality coal that receives a poor price in internat ...
Monday, 06 October 14
THE IRON ORE SHIPPING BUSINESS IS FACING SOME ROUGH SEAS - EAST ASIA FORUM
The impact of Chinese demand on global iron ore prices is well known. A less acknowledged consequence of China’s emergence is the transformat ...
Sunday, 05 October 14
BALTIC DRY INDEX SLIPS 1.14%; BALTIC PANAMAX INDEX GAINED 9.91% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was down by 1.14 pct and closed at 1037 points this Friday.
The Cape index was down significantly week on week or lost 5 ...
Friday, 03 October 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.8% TO 19.9 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.9 million short tons (mmst) of co ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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