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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting inv ...
Wednesday, 08 October 14
IS THERE ANY BRIGHT SIDE ON THE DRY BULK SEGMENT? - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
In the movie “Life Of Brian”, a character on a nearby cross was singing the famous “Always look on the bright side of life” ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
TAIPOWER TO IMPORT 525K MT OF LOW ASH AND EXTRA LOW SULFUR SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 525,000 metric tons of low ash and extra low sulfur sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWS A FLAT TO WEAK TREND THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps November 2014 delivery flat week on week and gained US$ 0.10 (-0.20%) per mt day on day. The swap also lost US$ ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
THE RIO TINTO CONFIRMS THAT NO DISCUSSIONS ARE TAKING PLACE WITH GLENCORE
COALspot.com: The board of Rio Tinto notes the recent press speculation regarding a possible combination of Rio Tinto and Glencore.The Rio Tinto bo ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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