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Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the looming rally. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, “it has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the dry bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers? Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year”, wondered Eva Tzima, Research Analyst with Intermodal.
According to the analyst, “in the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed”.
Tzima added that “the continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, compared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago. Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized” she noted.
According to Intermodal’s analyst, “this means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line. In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest”.
Meanwhile, “moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries. An identical policy was set last sum-mer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar rec-ord volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well”, she noted.
Tzima concluded that “so it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth. Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 26 August 14
GOVT ON TRACK TO LIMIT COAL OUTPUT - THE JAKARTA POST
The government has announced that it will proceed with plans to cap the production of coal next year, a move aimed not only at protecting the envir ...
Monday, 25 August 14
4TH ANNUAL FLOATING TERMINALS
4th Annual Floating Terminals
18-20 Nov 2014
Intercontinental Jakarta Midplaza,
Indonesia
Web Site
The Floating Terminal c ...
Monday, 25 August 14
THE BALTIC DRY IS JUMPING, BUT DON'T DRAW ANY BROAD CONCLUSIONS - NASDAQ
Those who consistently preach doom and gloom and see an economic apocalypse around every corner would make me laugh if it weren’t for the fac ...
Monday, 25 August 14
COAL CEOS: DEMISE OF COAL 'EXAGGERATED' - MARK WILCOX
By Mark Wilcox
Heads of some of the largest coal companies in Wyoming are saying the demise of coal has been exaggerated, though the industry def ...
Monday, 25 August 14
INDO COAL SWAPS W-O-W: NEGATIVE; M-O-M: POSITIVE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average September 2014 decreased US$ 0.15 (-0.28%) day on day and US$ 0.65 (-1.19%) per mt week on week. Th ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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