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Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the looming rally. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, “it has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the dry bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers? Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year”, wondered Eva Tzima, Research Analyst with Intermodal.
According to the analyst, “in the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed”.
Tzima added that “the continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, compared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago. Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized” she noted.
According to Intermodal’s analyst, “this means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line. In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest”.
Meanwhile, “moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries. An identical policy was set last sum-mer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar rec-ord volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well”, she noted.
Tzima concluded that “so it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth. Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 28 August 14
PANAMAX: OWNERS CAN GET AROUND USD 16000 FOR A FRONTHAUL; PERIOD MARKET - VERY QUIET - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The activity and sentiment is improving in the Atlantic with the general TA rate is up about US$ 800 w-o-w. We see more South American carg ...
Thursday, 28 August 14
BANPU REPORTS HIGHER FIRST-HALF YEAR RESULTS FOR 2014
COALspot.com: Banpu Public Company Limited (BANPU) reports higher first half-year financial results for 2014 having its gross profit increasing 3 p ...
Wednesday, 27 August 14
FREIGHT MARKET: IS THE MARKET IN A RECOVERY MOOD? - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Is the market in a recovery mood?
August is typically a time when the shipping industry takes it easy… charter-ers book their requireme ...
Tuesday, 26 August 14
4TH ANNUAL ASIA NICKEL
4th Annual Asia Nickel
19-20 Nov 2014
Grand Hyatt Jakarta, Indonesia
Web Site
Asia’s Premier Nickel Conference
Regulation in ...
Tuesday, 26 August 14
DESPITE LOW DRY BULK RATES, BULKER PRICES ARE STILL HIGH - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Traditionally, August tends to be a month of slow activity in the sale and purchasing market and this year has been no exception. However, as shipb ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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