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Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the looming rally. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, “it has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the dry bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers? Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year”, wondered Eva Tzima, Research Analyst with Intermodal.
According to the analyst, “in the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed”.
Tzima added that “the continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, compared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago. Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized” she noted.
According to Intermodal’s analyst, “this means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line. In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest”.
Meanwhile, “moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries. An identical policy was set last sum-mer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar rec-ord volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well”, she noted.
Tzima concluded that “so it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth. Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 22 August 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.4% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.60 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 21 August 14
PREDICTIONS FROM VARIOUS SHIPPERS AND MINING INDUSTRY FOR 2ND HALF YEAR AND ESPECIALLY Q4 IS POSITIVE
Handy
The activity has increased in both hemispheres this week and we see rates edging up on all trades. TA´s are now paying around 8k whic ...
Thursday, 21 August 14
SHIP OWNERS KEEP SHYING AWAY FOR NEW SHIP INVESTMENTS, OVERALL TREND IS DOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners have remained in the sidelines of the Sale & Purchasing market for second hand vessels, during most of August, while they also slow ...
Monday, 18 August 14
CAPESIZE RATES TO RISE TO MUCH HIGHER LEVELS THIS YEAR - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com: Capesize rates ended last week at $15,561/day, which marked a week-on-week increase of $6,167 (66%). Capesize rates have been a ...
Monday, 18 August 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $58.60 FOR SEPTEMBER 2015; UP $4 FROM SEPTEMBER 2014 CLOSING
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average September 2014 decreased US$ 0.15 (-0.27%) day on day and US$ 0.75 (-1.36%) per mt week on week. Th ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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