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Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the looming rally. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, “it has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the dry bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers? Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year”, wondered Eva Tzima, Research Analyst with Intermodal.
According to the analyst, “in the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed”.
Tzima added that “the continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, compared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago. Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized” she noted.
According to Intermodal’s analyst, “this means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line. In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest”.
Meanwhile, “moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries. An identical policy was set last sum-mer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar rec-ord volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well”, she noted.
Tzima concluded that “so it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth. Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Saturday, 30 August 14
INDIAN GOVERNMENT SHOULD TAKE NOTICE: THERMAL COAL IMPORT PRICES EXTREMELY LOW - COMMODORE RESEARCH
COALspot.com: Both Indonesian and Australian thermal coal prices are at the lowest levels seen this decade, with Indonesia's monthly benchmark ...
Saturday, 30 August 14
RECOVERY IN SIGHT FOR THE DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET - DREWRY SHIPPING CONSULTANTS
Despite weak freight rates so far this year, Dry Bulk shipping earnings are forecast to recover as demand for both major and minor bulk commodities ...
Friday, 29 August 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DROPS 1.3 PERCENT, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.40 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 29 August 14
ADARO'S PROFITS SINK FURTHER AMID FALL IN COAL PRICES - JP
Adaro Energy, one of the country’s largest coal miners, has reported a 31 percent drop in net profit in the first half of this year as global ...
Friday, 29 August 14
CHINESE LIGNITE IMPORTS: QUANTITY OVER QUALITY? - CLARKSONS
In the first half of 2014, Chinese seaborne coal imports declined 0.4% y-o-y to 148mt, largely reflecting a 3.3% fall in imports of steam coal. Mea ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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