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Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the looming rally. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, “it has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the dry bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers? Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year”, wondered Eva Tzima, Research Analyst with Intermodal.
According to the analyst, “in the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed”.
Tzima added that “the continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, compared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago. Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized” she noted.
According to Intermodal’s analyst, “this means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line. In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest”.
Meanwhile, “moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries. An identical policy was set last sum-mer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar rec-ord volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well”, she noted.
Tzima concluded that “so it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth. Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 05 September 14
U.S. PRODUCED 19.2 MMST OF COAL LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.20 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 04 September 14
PUNJAB STATE POWER CORPORATION LIMITED OF INDIA HAS DECIDED TO BUY IMPORTED COAL - HINDUSTAN TIMES
COALspot.com: The Punjab State Power Corporation Limited (PSPCL) has decided to buy imported coal to run its thermal plants, as reported by Hindust ...
Thursday, 04 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL MINERS MAY GET MORE TIME ON ROYALTIES - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says that coal miners in Indonesia are likely to get more time to repay the government the royalties that were set off ...
Thursday, 04 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS SLIDE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average October 2014 decreased US$ 0.90 (-1.68%) day on day and US$ 1.80 (-3.31%) per mt week on week. The ...
Thursday, 04 September 14
CAPESIZE : SENTIMENT REMAINS POSITIVE FOR Q3/Q4 - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic market has experienced more activity this week. Rates for TA´s are up about 8% w-o-w, much lead by an increasing number ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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