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Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the looming rally. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, “it has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the dry bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers? Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year”, wondered Eva Tzima, Research Analyst with Intermodal.
According to the analyst, “in the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed”.
Tzima added that “the continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, compared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago. Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized” she noted.
According to Intermodal’s analyst, “this means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line. In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest”.
Meanwhile, “moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries. An identical policy was set last sum-mer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar rec-ord volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well”, she noted.
Tzima concluded that “so it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth. Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 07 September 14
FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO BE FIRM IN SPITE OF CAPE'S THIS WEEK'S WEAK PERFORMANCE
COALspot.com: BDI up by 0.7 pct week on week and closed at 1155 points this week. The Baltic Dry Index is a composite of three sub-indexes that mea ...
Sunday, 07 September 14
SHIPMANAGERS SUPERVISION CONTRACT FOR NEWBUILDS - BIMCO
Shipmanagers are frequently called upon by their owner clients to supervise newbuilding projects on their behalf. The scope of the manager’s ...
Saturday, 06 September 14
SLOW COAL EXPORT REGISTRATION RAISES CONCERNS - THE JAKARTA POST
Several coal mining companies have yet to receive the go-ahead from the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry to obtain exporting licenses, leading ...
Saturday, 06 September 14
DRY BULK MARKET'S PROSPECTS ARE IMPROVING, DESPITE WEAK SECOND QUARTER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been rebounding during the past month, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ended the week on a high note, reaching 1,155 points ...
Saturday, 06 September 14
INDONESIA WANTS TO REGULATE COAL DEALS - THE TELEGRAPH INDIA
Indonesia has raised concerns about suspected coal deals struck between overseas buyers and its unregistered domestic miners, the telegraph India r ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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