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Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the looming rally. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, “it has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the dry bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers? Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year”, wondered Eva Tzima, Research Analyst with Intermodal.
According to the analyst, “in the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed”.
Tzima added that “the continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, compared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago. Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized” she noted.
According to Intermodal’s analyst, “this means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line. In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest”.
Meanwhile, “moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries. An identical policy was set last sum-mer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar rec-ord volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well”, she noted.
Tzima concluded that “so it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth. Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 09 September 14
WEAK M&A DESPITE ABUNDANT DISTRESSED INDONESIA COAL ASSETS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says that a meaningful level of merger and acquisition (M&A) activity leading to a consolidation of the coal sector ...
Tuesday, 09 September 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.207 MTN OF COAL IN AUGUST; TRADE VALUE AROUND $1.17 BILLION
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.17 billio ...
Monday, 08 September 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP UNDERPERFORMED LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average October 2014 decreased US$ 0.20 (-0.39%) day on day and US$ 1.60 (-3.04%) per mt week on week. The ...
Monday, 08 September 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY JAN'15 CLOSED AT US$ 66.30 PMT W/E 5 SEPTEMBER 2014; LOST 5.15% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in October 2014 decreased US$ 0.15 (-0.23%) day on day and US$ 2.05 (-3.04%) week on wee ...
Monday, 08 September 14
CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORT DEMAND VERY STRONG - COMMODORE
COALspot.com: 30 dry bulk vessels were chartered in the spot iron ore market last week to haul iron ore import cargoes to Chinese buyers.
Acco ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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