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Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the looming rally. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, “it has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the dry bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers? Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year”, wondered Eva Tzima, Research Analyst with Intermodal.
According to the analyst, “in the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed”.
Tzima added that “the continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, compared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago. Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized” she noted.
According to Intermodal’s analyst, “this means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line. In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest”.
Meanwhile, “moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries. An identical policy was set last sum-mer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar rec-ord volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well”, she noted.
Tzima concluded that “so it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth. Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 17 September 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Since the onslaught of 2013 the rising tide of asset prices had been primarily driven by the increasing freight market conditions and the improving ...
Tuesday, 16 September 14
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED HBA SUFFERED ANOTHER SETBACK IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in September. HBA for ...
Tuesday, 16 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL OUTPUT WON'T EXCEED 421M TONS: GOVT - JP
The government is optimistic that it will meet its coal production target for this year, which caps nationwide production at a flat number compared ...
Monday, 15 September 14
CHINA'S COAL PROPOSALS LEAVE SOME HOPE FOR EXPORTERS - DAILY NEWS
When the best thing you can say about new policies is that they aren’t as bad as they could have been, then you know your industry is in deep ...
Monday, 15 September 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP, JANUARY 2015 DELIVERY GAINED DAY ON DAY AND WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average October 2014 increased US$ 0.40 (+0.78%) day on day and US$ 0.55 (+1.08%) per mt week on week. The ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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