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Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the looming rally. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, “it has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the dry bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers? Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year”, wondered Eva Tzima, Research Analyst with Intermodal.
According to the analyst, “in the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed”.
Tzima added that “the continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, compared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago. Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized” she noted.
According to Intermodal’s analyst, “this means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line. In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest”.
Meanwhile, “moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries. An identical policy was set last sum-mer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar rec-ord volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well”, she noted.
Tzima concluded that “so it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth. Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 19 September 14
PRICES FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS HAVEN'T CORRECTED ENOUGH, DESPITE LOWER THAN EXPECTED FREIGHT RATES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A lot has been said and written about the looming dry bulk market recovery over the past few months. However, even if this hasn’t been materi ...
Thursday, 18 September 14
INDONESIA'S JULY COAL EXPORT VOLUME DROPPED 5.13% M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.65* ...
Thursday, 18 September 14
PANAMAX : US GULF/CHINA FRONTHAUL ARE NOW PAYING TYPICALLY 14.5K + 450K BB - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
We still see a firming tendency in the Atlantic and it is still ECSA and USG leading on. USG/Cont now up in about USD 17/18k for a Smax whi ...
Thursday, 18 September 14
ELECTRONIC BILLS OF LADING: A GUIDE TO PAPERLESS TRADING WHICH HAS TAKEN THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY BY STORM
Bimco has recently developed and published a charter party clause that specifically addresses the use of electronic bills of lading. Increasing use ...
Wednesday, 17 September 14
PANAMAX: LIMITED INTEREST IN BOTH BASINS; RISING TONNAGE - INTERMODAL
With the week starting off at a fast pace and with the positive momentum from the previous Friday seemingly sticking around for a bit longer, most ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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