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Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the looming rally. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, “it has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the dry bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers? Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year”, wondered Eva Tzima, Research Analyst with Intermodal.
According to the analyst, “in the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed”.
Tzima added that “the continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, compared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago. Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized” she noted.
According to Intermodal’s analyst, “this means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line. In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest”.
Meanwhile, “moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries. An identical policy was set last sum-mer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar rec-ord volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well”, she noted.
Tzima concluded that “so it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth. Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 22 September 14
COAL SECTOR CHAOS - GENESIS TO REVELATION - DIPESH DIPU
COALspot.com: “Let there be light”, intends the government of India but the fuel side of the story paints a blackout. The recent Suprem ...
Monday, 22 September 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS LOST ON DAY, WEEK AND MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in October 2014 decreased US$ 3.10 (-4.50%) month over month and $ 0.95 PT MT week over ...
Monday, 22 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS LOST WEEK ON WEEK AND MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average October 2014 increased US$ 0.35 (+0.69%) day on day and lost US$ 0.30 (-0.58%) per mt week on week. ...
Sunday, 21 September 14
CAPE INDEX LOST 17% W-O-W ; BALTIC DRY PLUNGES 106 POINTS
COALspot.com: This week the freight market softened a bit compared to last week.
BDI fell 8.97% week on week and closed BDI at 1075 points on ...
Friday, 19 September 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION RELATIVELY FLAT AT +0.1% - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.20 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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