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Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the looming rally. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, “it has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the dry bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers? Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year”, wondered Eva Tzima, Research Analyst with Intermodal.
According to the analyst, “in the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed”.
Tzima added that “the continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, compared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago. Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized” she noted.
According to Intermodal’s analyst, “this means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line. In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest”.
Meanwhile, “moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries. An identical policy was set last sum-mer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar rec-ord volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well”, she noted.
Tzima concluded that “so it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth. Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 16 October 14
PANAMAX OWNERS RECEIVE A PREMIUM FOR GOING TO INDIA VIA INDONESIA - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Handy/Supra market continues to slide in both hemispheres, said Fearnleys AS in its latest week report. In the Atlantic we see rates co ...
Thursday, 16 October 14
ARE WE GOING TO SHOOT OURSELVES IN THE FOOT ONCE AGAIN? - PANOS MAKRINOS
As the East part of our globe was coming back from its October holidays last week, everyone expected that the Dry Bulk market would follow suit and ...
Wednesday, 15 October 14
PANAMAX: ACTIVITY IN THE PACIFIC WAS UNIMPRESSIVE
The Dry Bulk market noted another weekly decline last week, while the BDI moved below 1,000 points taking down with it expectations that a post hol ...
Wednesday, 15 October 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL TO FRESH MULTI-YEAR LOWS IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in October 2014.
...
Wednesday, 15 October 14
DRY BULK SHIPPING: RATE IMPROVEMENTS ARRIVED AS FORECAST, BUT UNCERTAINTY MOUNTS FOR 2015 DEMAND - BIMCO
BIMCO released its latest short term assessment of the dry bulk market, estimating that over the October-November period, the level of Capesize TC ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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