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Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the looming rally. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, “it has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the dry bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers? Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year”, wondered Eva Tzima, Research Analyst with Intermodal.
According to the analyst, “in the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed”.
Tzima added that “the continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, compared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago. Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized” she noted.
According to Intermodal’s analyst, “this means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line. In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest”.
Meanwhile, “moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries. An identical policy was set last sum-mer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar rec-ord volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well”, she noted.
Tzima concluded that “so it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth. Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 22 October 14
CAPESIZE MARKET REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed on the red for yet another week although following Friday sentiment has started to improve on the back of ...
Tuesday, 21 October 14
INDIA'S DIESEL DEREGULATION POSITIVE FOR OIL COMPANIES - FITCH
The Indian government's 18 October decision to deregulate diesel prices will have a positive effect on the national oil marketing companies tha ...
Tuesday, 21 October 14
LOW DEMAND PUTTING COAL SWAPS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost on day, week and month.
The swap has lost US$ 1.57 (-3.04%) month on month ...
Monday, 20 October 14
CHINA'S ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES DO NOT SPELL THE END FOR COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
China's environmental policies do not spell the end for coal Analysis across energy commodities show coal still accounting for 64% of power mix ...
Monday, 20 October 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FAILED TO PERFORM POSITIVE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 3.04 (-4.57%) month over month and US$ 1.75 (-2.68%) week o ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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