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Wednesday, 20 August 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO REBOUND IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, OR NOT....- NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The projected rebound of the dry bulk market is still an elusive trend and shipbrokers and analysts are looking to identify the timing of the looming rally. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, “it has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the dry bulk market so far and with second hand values still standing high com-pared to last year, the anticipation for the freight market to recover, feels a bit more intense than usual. So what could Q4 be holding for dry bulkers? Are we in for a similar end of year surge like the one witnessed last year”, wondered Eva Tzima, Research Analyst with Intermodal.
According to the analyst, “in the case of the Capesize segment, all eyes are currently turned on China and the iron ore trade. In the beginning of the month, stock-piles at the country’s ports stood at record high levels. Although high levels of iron ore inventory usually reflect that strong steel production is anticipated, it doesn’t look like this is the case here. While steel production levels have been kept high throughout the first half of 2014, profits for the steelmaking industry have been sluggish. This most likely means that production remained at high levels through-out the year due to the Chinese government’s efforts to sustain growth with direct investments in the industry and in anticipation of greater future demand, a demand which has yet to be witnessed”.
Tzima added that “the continuously declining price of the commodity, which in June reached its lowest level since September 2012 has also sustained port inventories at high levels, despite the fact that end demand wasn’t keeping up pace. If we look back in the summer of 2013 things were dramatically different, with port inventories standing well below the historical average, at around 70 million tonnes, compared to 113.65 million tonnes a few weeks ago. Since the restocking started in September of 2013, inventory levels have been on an upward trend, currently leaving little space for aggressive imports and even less room for Cape rates to thrive in the same way they did during the last quarter of last year.
Moving on to the smaller size segments, the upcoming grain season is what the market is currently focusing on and it looks like grains might come to the rescue this year as well. Europe has been witnessing excessive rainfall lately and as a result, the harvest, in France, Germany and other traditional grain producers, is being delayed and its quality jeopardized” she noted.
According to Intermodal’s analyst, “this means that the EU will have to intensify its imports and consequently help seaborne trade volumes, with business in the Black Sea being the first beneficiary in line. In fact, Russia is currently exporting wheat at record pace, as despite sanctions short term finance has not been affected and therefore wheat trade is not being obstructed. Ukraine’s exports are also due to keep the Black Sea busy, while both countries are experiencing a near record harvest”.
Meanwhile, “moving on to the other side of the Atlantic, the US has been con-firming that a bumper harvest is expected, while at the same time prices for the US grains have been fairing at very attractive levels. Similarly to the last quarter of 2013, it looks like Brazil will once again play an important role in the performance of the USG business in the following months. The country has temporarily eliminated the Common External Tariff, which is traditionally imposed on imports from non-Mercosul countries. An identical policy was set last sum-mer, just in time before North American wheat cargoes en-route to Brazil started flooding the USG and pushing rates for the geared sizes up. With Brazil being uncertain as to whether Argentina would be able to satisfy this year’s demand either, the country has again distanced itself from its traditional wheat supplier and a similar rec-ord volume of US imports is anticipated this year as well”, she noted.
Tzima concluded that “so it could well be the case that during Q4 we end up witnessing a market of two speeds, with the performance of the Capesize market lugging behind that of the geared sizes, as China appears to have turned its back on Capers for now. We are always in for a good surprise that could come in the form of stronger stimulus by the Chinese government or an upward revision of global growth. Any hypothesis aside though, my sense is that we have hyper inflated our expectations for the last quarter of the year, in the same way we did at the end of 2013 for the entire 2014, while in terms of tonnage performance; bigger might not be better this fall”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 29 October 14
GOOD REASON WHY Q4 CAPESIZE OUTLOOK WAS SO BULLISH AT START OF THE YEAR - COMMODORE RESEARCH
COALspot.com: There was good reason why so many analysts' capesize outlook for Q4 was so very strong at the start of this year. Brazilian ...
Tuesday, 28 October 14
SGX'S FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY Q1' 2015 CLOSED AT $ 68.07 ON 24 OCT
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 0.65 (-0.96%) month over month and increased US$ 1.79 (+2. ...
Tuesday, 28 October 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED 3.68% LOWER MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost month on month and gained day on day and week on week.
The swap has lost US ...
Monday, 27 October 14
GOVT PROMISES TO EASE LICENSING PROCEDURES IN MINING SECTOR - THE JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry’s directorate general for mineral and coal plans to simplify the complicated licensing procedures i ...
Monday, 27 October 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED $ 0.10 LESSER THAN Q4' 14 CLOSING OF $ 53.27 PMT
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.43 (-2.61%) month over month and increased US$ 0.05 (+0.09% ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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