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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
 With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market de ...
Tuesday, 15 July 14
INDONESIA'S TOTAL COAL PRODUCTION REACHED ANOTHER HIGH DURING THE FIRST SIX MONTHS; GOVERNMENT EXPECTED TO RAISE ROYALTIES
COALspot.com: Indonesia's total coal production reached 213 million tons during January through June, up by 7.6 percent y-o-y. Coal output in I ...
Monday, 14 July 14
THE END OF THE ERA OF HEAVY FUEL OIL IN MARITIME SHIPPING - ICCT
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Since the 1960s, heavy fuel oil (HFO) has been the king of marine fuels. Viscous, dirty, yet inexpensive and widely avail ...
Monday, 14 July 14
SGX SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 14 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 54.80
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 14 July 14
SGX CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 14 LOST 17.29% SINCE EARLY JANUARY 2014
COALspot.com: Coal price falling is continues as the impact oversupply and lower demand. API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in Q3 drops U ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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