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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Wednesday, 06 August 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
Recent reports that Indonesia’s ban on exports of metal ore concentrates was lifted for the first time in six months for two of its biggest m ...
Wednesday, 06 August 14
SGX SUCCESSFULLY LAUNCHED NEW SGX COAL PRODUCTS
COALspot.com: Singapore Exchange (‘SGX’) has announced that, the exchange has successfully launched its new Coking and Thermal Coal pro ...
Monday, 04 August 14
ANNUAL SECOND HALF SURGE IN BRAZILIAN IRON ORE EXPORTS ABOUT TO BEGIN - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com: Great strength in the capesize market has all along been set to occur during the second half of this year, as that is when Brazilian ...
Monday, 04 August 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP INCHES UP DESPITE LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q4’ 2014 increased US$ 0.15 day on day and US$ 0.13 per mt week on week. But, the swap was lo ...
Monday, 04 August 14
Q1' 15 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT US$ 69.37 ON 1 AUGUST 2014; A $ 1.10 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4' 2014 CLOSING
COALspot.com: Coal swap prices are showing a positive move upward this past week. API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4, Q1 and Q2 2015 show ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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