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Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, are bleak
Coal, besides being a cheap source of electricity generation, also serves as a major raw material for various industries, including steel and cement production.
In the US, coal accounts for nearly 40% of total energy needs (based on 2014 year-to-date statistics). As emission standards in the US become more stringent, natural gas and other renewable resources are increasingly replacing coal as an energy alternative. Despite this, coal remains a major source of power generation because it is cheaper than other resources.
Outlook for 2014
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the country’s coal production to increase 2.7% to 1,011 million short tons (MMst) in 2014, driven largely by higher consumption.
Coal production fell by more than 7% in 2012, compared to 2011, as a result of increased competition from natural gas for power generation. Natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 to $2.77 per MMBtu from $4.02 per MMBtu in 2011.
Demand for coal is expected to grow 2.8% this year to 951 MMst because of rising demand for electricity and higher natural gas prices. Beginning second-half of 2013, natural gas prices started rising as demand outpaced supply, reaching $5.08 per MMBtu in May 2014.
In 2015, however, the demand for coal is likely to decline 2.8% as Mercury and Air Toxic Standards go into action, leading to retirement of coal power plants. Natural gas prices are expected to fall again next year because of a 1.1% decline in natural gas consumption during the current year, further reducing the demand for coal.
Coal production will continue to see a slight improvement until 2030 as the existing plants reach their maximum utilization rates, after which no new capacity will be added. All in all, the production is expected to rise 0.3% per year from 2013 through 2040, from 20.8 to 22.6 quadrillion Btu.
Coal Prices
Coal prices have followed a declining trend in the past two years in the face of growing supply from major producers looking to cut costs, and shrinking consumer demand because of a slowing Chinese economy. China consumes 60% of the world’s coal and iron ore.
Annual average prices of thermal coal fell from $2.39 per MMBtu in 2011, to $2.35 per MMBtu. Analysts expect global thermal coal prices to stay at low levels until 2016. The EIA, however, expects average delivered coal prices to increase to $2.39 per MMBtu in 2014 and $2.41 per MMBtu in 2015.
Impact on related industries
In the wake of falling coal prices, mining companies have cut capital expenditures to remain profitable.
The decline in prices has also affected mining equipment companies. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the largest manufacturer of mining equipment, has a bleak outlook for the current year as sales of mining equipment drop. Its second quarter revenues for mining division fell 29% year-over-year (YoY).
Railroad companies, however, saw coal shipments rise for the second quarter as a result of increased demand for utility coal from stockpile replenishment. This was in response to a severe winter and higher natural gas prices, which offset lower export volume. Both Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and CSX Corporation (CSX) saw coal revenue improvement of 7% and 6.5%, respectively.
Despite a favorable outlook for short-term coal prices, the long-term outlook for coal demand and prices remains bleak.
By: Sam Quest
This article was originally published in Bidness etc
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Wednesday, 06 August 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
Recent reports that Indonesia’s ban on exports of metal ore concentrates was lifted for the first time in six months for two of its biggest m ...
Wednesday, 06 August 14
SGX SUCCESSFULLY LAUNCHED NEW SGX COAL PRODUCTS
COALspot.com: Singapore Exchange (‘SGX’) has announced that, the exchange has successfully launched its new Coking and Thermal Coal pro ...
Monday, 04 August 14
ANNUAL SECOND HALF SURGE IN BRAZILIAN IRON ORE EXPORTS ABOUT TO BEGIN - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com: Great strength in the capesize market has all along been set to occur during the second half of this year, as that is when Brazilian ...
Monday, 04 August 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP INCHES UP DESPITE LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q4’ 2014 increased US$ 0.15 day on day and US$ 0.13 per mt week on week. But, the swap was lo ...
Monday, 04 August 14
Q1' 15 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT US$ 69.37 ON 1 AUGUST 2014; A $ 1.10 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q4' 2014 CLOSING
COALspot.com: Coal swap prices are showing a positive move upward this past week. API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4, Q1 and Q2 2015 show ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
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