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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 May 14
DRY BULK NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS COULD HELP SUPPORT MARKET IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market's demise over the past few months maybe has come as a surprise to many, but analysts and shipbrokers are looking forward to ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
HEAR SUCCESSFUL CASE STUDIES FROM 10 INDEPENDENT UNCONVENTIONAL GAS OPERATORS
Unconventional Gas Asia 2014 will provide a unique opportunity for Asia’s unconventional gas leaders to share their experience and expertise ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
CNPC-GAZPROM DEAL A MEDIUM - TERM POSITIVE FOR CHINA'S GAS SECTOR
Fitch Ratings says a 30-year deal in which Russia's OAO Gazprom (BBB/Negative) will supply gas to China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC; A ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
CAPESIZE : RATES ARE STILL UNDER PRESSURE
Handy
A quiet start into the week in Far East, some fresh Indonesian coal order in the market. For trips within S.E. Asia, Supras are trading aro ...
Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seabo ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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