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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 May 14
DRY BULK NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS COULD HELP SUPPORT MARKET IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market's demise over the past few months maybe has come as a surprise to many, but analysts and shipbrokers are looking forward to ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
HEAR SUCCESSFUL CASE STUDIES FROM 10 INDEPENDENT UNCONVENTIONAL GAS OPERATORS
Unconventional Gas Asia 2014 will provide a unique opportunity for Asia’s unconventional gas leaders to share their experience and expertise ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
CNPC-GAZPROM DEAL A MEDIUM - TERM POSITIVE FOR CHINA'S GAS SECTOR
Fitch Ratings says a 30-year deal in which Russia's OAO Gazprom (BBB/Negative) will supply gas to China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC; A ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
CAPESIZE : RATES ARE STILL UNDER PRESSURE
Handy
A quiet start into the week in Far East, some fresh Indonesian coal order in the market. For trips within S.E. Asia, Supras are trading aro ...
Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seabo ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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