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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 May 14
NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME UP 39.11 PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 07:00 hours 19 May 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, ...
Tuesday, 20 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET TO IMPROVE OVER THE COURSE OF 2014, BUT OVERSUPPLY STILL AN ISSUE SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST
As a gruelling first quarter edges closer to the end, dry bulk ship owners are looking at an improved second quarter demand, which, coupled with sl ...
Tuesday, 20 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET IS BOUND FOR A RECOVERY CLAIMS PARAGON SHIPPING'S HEAD MICHAEL BODOUROGLOU
The dry bulk market is bound for a recovery in the coming weeks, as the market will be better balanced, said Mr. Michael Bodouroglou, Chairman and ...
Monday, 19 May 14
INDO COAL SWAPS FOR AVERAGE Q3' 2014 DELIVERY LOST ON WEEK AND ON MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports release ...
Monday, 19 May 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL LOST 2.49% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 2.49 percent month on month and closed at US$ 74.35 per mt as on F ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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