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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 18 May 14
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady with the BDI was closed slightly higher at 1027 points or up 3.00 pct week on week.
The Cape ...
Friday, 16 May 14
KOMIPO IS LOOKING FOR 60K MT OF LOW VOLATILE BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com : Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd. has invited bids through International open bidding for 60,000 Metric Tons (MT) of low volatile bitumi ...
Friday, 16 May 14
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 18.9 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal i ...
Thursday, 15 May 14
PANAMAX : SHORT PERIOD UP TO ONE YEAR REPORTED IN THE 12.000-12.500 RANGE - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Supra and handy market seems to be affected by the recent holidays in Singapore which still relatively quiet. There are some Indo / ...
Thursday, 15 May 14
USA COAL CONFERENCE
Press Release: IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS), the leading global source of information and analysis, will host the Coal USA Conference, June 18-20, 2014, ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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