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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 July 14
INDONESIA'S MINERAL EXPORT BAN: CHINA UNDER PRESSURE? - CLARKSONS
In January 2014, Indonesia introduced new regulations on exports of unprocessed minerals. Exports of some minerals have been heavily taxed, whilst ...
Tuesday, 22 July 14
ASIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL USERS' GROUP CONFERENCE
Press Release: Registration Open for Fourth Annual Asian Sub-Bituminous Coal Users’ Group Conference
Register today for this year&r ...
Monday, 21 July 14
25% OF INDIA'S POWER PLANTS WERE HAVING SUPER CRITICAL COAL STOCK - COAL AND POWER MINISTER
25% of India’s power plants were having super critical coal stock; power utilities have also been advised to enhance the import of coal - Coa ...
Monday, 21 July 14
INDONESIA'S STATE CONTROLLED COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM ENJOYED HIGHER SELLING PRICE DURING THIS STORMY MARKET
COALspot.com: PT Bukit Asam, the Indonesian government controlled coal miner announced today that, the company has produced 7.70 million tons of co ...
Monday, 21 July 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL Q3 DELIVERY SWAPS LOST 16% SINCE JANUARY 17, 2014
COALspot.com: Coal price falling is continues as the impact oversupply and lower demand. Market is not showing any positive trend in near future.
...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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