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Tuesday, 08 July 14
ENERGY IN THE MIX - INTERMODAL SHIPBROKERS
 With the Tanker freight market having showed much promise this year compared to the performance that had been noted during the previous five, it is interesting to take on a review and outlook of the energy market as a whole. With the Developing nations having played a catch up gain during most of the 2000’s and having been found in a more advantageous position in terms of their continued economic development after the financial crisis of 2008, a considerable weight has been placed on these economies to drive demand forward for most of the energy commodities such as crude oil, coal and natural gas which play an integral part in shipping. Whilst most regions such as North America and Europe, which historically held the lions share for consumption of energy, have been holding steady in their requirements the Astronomical growth in demand from the Asia Pacific region has been the main source of demand growth for much more than a decade now.
China has been the main reason for those, with a key part having been played in the past by Japan and North Korea as well and India now quickly stepping up to take up it’s as a main contender. As these economies went through their stages of economic development, it was well known that an exponential increase in energy consumption would be one of the main byproducts of this. However, with time another pattern has slowly started to emerge.
Despite the rapid growth of energy consumption per capita, the growing worries regarding sources of energy and the sustainability and “cleanness” of our energy consumption has pushed for an ever more efficient and innovative mix of energy consumption, in turn driving for an ever slower growth of energy demand compared to the average GDP growth of the global economy. As pointed out earlier this year by the BP in its Energy outlook report, the amount of energy required per unit of GDP is expected to decline by 1.9% per year over the next 20 years while this figure is more than double the decline rate that was noted in the past decade. This means that we are slowly moving to a higher independence from energy, requiring less input to achieve an ever higher economic output. This could even prove to be an underestimate as typically energy plays a more primal role at the early stages of economic development and once both China and India (the current mammoths of global economic growth) get past this stage, they will likely shift their needs respectively causing a further slowdown in energy consumption per GDP.
A second point which will prove to be of more vital importance, though the trend seems to be moving at a slower pace, is how the world economy as a whole is slowly moving away from fossil fuels towards renewable sources of energy, with the latter expected to take a further 5% from the energy mix within the next 20 years. This has its significance on the shipping industry, as its fossil fuels that are transported by sea and they also take up a considerable portion of world seaborne trade.
Further to this we have seen a rapid shift amongst the preference of fossil fuels within the energy consumption mix. Oil has continued its rapid decline is close to losing its dominant position as the primary source of energy, while Coal has made considerable leaps over the past decade with natural gas following close behind. This has been evident within trade as well as the dry bulk market has significantly benefited from the growing importance of coal while the tanker market has been struggling to see an equal amount of growth in demand even before the crisis. This has followed through with an increasing amount of innovation in oil exploration such as that of tight oil and shale gas. This has been one of the important factors why we have seen a shift in trade with the U.S. decreasing its Crude oil imports last year by almost 40 million tonnes, while it was mainly thanks to China and India which in-creased theirs by 11 and 13 million tonnes respectively which helped cover much of this gap and provide the tanker market with some support.
Going forward, it is increasingly difficult to see any support from the market fundamentals that could provide a justification to a fast paced increase in tanker tonnage. Tonne miles are running shorter and shorter and although the demand for the commodity is there it seems that there isn’t much room for further growth in the fleet. The big promise that was West Africa in helping create further tonne-miles will likely be outshined by the slowly increasing production from East and Southern Africa. The Middle East still holds its top podium position with regards to trade exports and is situated fairly close to both China and India when compared to the distance VLs had to take to go around the Cape to get to the U.S. At the same time we expect more pipeline deals with the Far East to be struck by the other main exporter which is Russia.
In conclusion, there may well be an optimistic growth in demand for energy commodities such as crude oil, however it is looking increasingly difficult for this to translate over to increased seaborne trade and although Chinese and India Consumption will likely rise rapidly over the next couple of years , unless there is a rapid change in regional energy imbalances, the growth in shipping requirements is set to hold at a fairly slow pace.
- George Lazaridis - Research Analyst -
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 11 August 14
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL SWAPS SEEING SOME POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average September 2014 increased US$ 0.20 (+0.36%) day on day and US$ 1.30 (+2.41%) per mt week on week. Th ...
Monday, 11 August 14
SGX CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DIRECTION HEADING TO NORTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in September 2014 increased US$ 0.50 (+0.74%) day on day and US$ 1.55 (+2.33%)&nbs ...
Monday, 11 August 14
A TALE OF TWO TRADES - EVA TZIMA
COALspot.com: It has without a doubt been “a cruel, cruel summer” for the Dry Bulk market so far and with second hand values still stan ...
Sunday, 10 August 14
FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: This week the BDI and other segments saw some improvements. The BDI increased by 3.46 pct week on week and closed at 777 points.
...
Friday, 08 August 14
MINING DISPUTE IS CRIPPLING LOCAL ECONOMIES IN EASTERN INDONESIA - JG
- By Iwan Harsono -
It seems as if there’s no end in sight to the series of negotiations between the government and mining companies about ...
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Showing 3551 to 3555 news of total 6871 |
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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