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Saturday, 24 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET'S RECOVERY IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER SAYS SHIPOWNER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Despite the weaker than expected market sentiment in the dry bulk market over the course of the past few months, analysts and shipowners alike appear optimistic about a sustainable recovery of the market going forward. According to Friday's report from dry bulk shipowner Golden Ocean, "even though second quarter spot market so far has been weaker than predicted by most analysts following the sector, earnings have still been better than for the same period last year.
The Capesize earnings has year to date been $14,650 /day, compared to $5,650/day for the same period last year. In 2013 the dry bulk market started its recovery in June and gained more momentum from August onwards. From a demand perspective it is expected that new iron ore supply coming on stream will be the main driver over the next two to three years. From 2014 through 2016 as much as 280 million tons additional supply will become available for the global steel industry", said Golden Ocean.
In its market outlook the company noted that "analysts following the Chinese steel industry are expecting lower steel production growth. This is based on the assumptions of lower GDP growth and a gradual change from heavy infrastructure projects and construction to a more consumer focused growth model. In spite of a slower steel production growth analysts believe that demand for iron ore will continue to grow at a steady pace. With all the new capacity entering the market is likely that international iron ore prices will come under even stronger pressure. Consequently a major portion of the domestically produced iron ore which is both more expensive and with an inferior quality could potentially be ousted.
Meanwhile, the ordering of new vessels has been quite brisk. But given that most orders that have been placed lately are for second half 2016 onwards, the supply growth next eighteen months is not expected to exceed five per cent per annum. Most shipping analysts believe that demand growth will be around six per cent per annum and thereby outpace supply growth, leading to a higher utilization of the dry bulk fleet through 2015", Golden Ocean noted.
In its analysis of the dry bulk market so far in the year, the company said that "the second biggest economy in the world continued to make the headlines during first quarter of 2014. China has become the favorite of concerns among many observers analyzing the macroeconomics. The importance for the dry bulk industry is well known and China contributed with 83 per cent of global dry bulk growth, or 200 million tons in pure volume growth, during 2013. Chinese GDP grew by 7.4 per cent during the first quarter which was in line with expectations. In addition to the positive development in the U.S., several of the European economies showed signs of recovery. On the back of this EU increased its steel
production by 6.7 percent compared to same quarter in 2013.
The global steel industry and energy coal for utilities are accounting for about 70 percent of seaborne dry bulk transportations and both coal and iron ore volumes increased during first quarter. China imported 240 million mt of iron ore during the first quarter. This is 20 per cent more than the same quarter last year. Coal imports to China came in at 71 million mt or 9.5 per cent more than the first quarter of 2013. Japan imported 49.5 million mt of coal, which again represented an increase of about 9 per cent. Preliminary data is indicating an overall volume growth in seaborne dry bulk trade of 6 per cent for the first three months of 2014
against a net fleet growth of about 5 per cent", it noted.
DRY BULK MARKET TONNAGE TRENDS
According to Golden Ocean, about 16 million dwt of new capacity was delivered and 3.5 million dwt was scrapped during first quarter. Delivery ratio, versus what should have been delivered according to the official order book, is slightly higher this year compared to the previous five years. The main reason is that the current order book has a higher percentage of good quality yards where orders are delivered in time. About 25 million dwt were ordered during the first quarter, almost twice as much as the same quarter last year, but still 10 million dwt less than the fourth quarter of 2013. The order book represents 19 per cent of the total dry bulk fleet.
Capesize vessels earned on average $16,300 per day during the first quarter, and experienced strong volatility ranging from $7,900 per day to $35,000 per day. Panamaxes earned on average $10.425 per day with less volatility. The market performed better than most forecasters predicted, given that iron ore stockpiles in the major Chinese ports were high by the end of last year. However de-stocking did not take place and stocks remained unchanged during the quarter. We have witnessed some draw down of inventories in recent weeks and the Capesize spot market in particular has reacted accordingly.
Expectations for an upturn in earnings were high through most of the first quarter. This was reflected in the Forward Freight Curve which was in contango, in particular for the second half of 2014. Due to the fact that spot earnings surprised on the upside in combination with a positive sentiment, asset values continued to trend higher in the three first months of the year. The value of a five year old Capesize was up 10 per cent for the quarter and according to broker estimates was worth $48 million, while a five year old Panamax was up 7.5 per cent first quarter and was estimated to be worth $29 million by the end of March 2014.
In April 2014 both spot and forward markets have been under pressure, but most analysts remain confident that the fundamentals should cater for a market upswing within the next few months", the company concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 26 May 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDO COAL SWAP Q1' 15 DELIVERIES CLOSED AT US$ 59.40 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 26 May 14
Q3 14 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS LOST 2.24% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 2.24 percent month on month and closed at US$ 73.88 per mt as on F ...
Monday, 26 May 14
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY RISES BY 78% IN DWT TONNAGE OVER THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF THE YEARS, AS OWNERS INVEST$40.5 BN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners have plunged into newbuilding orders during the first four months of the year, as overall newbuilding business ended for the first four ...
Sunday, 25 May 14
FREIGHT RATES FROM SOUTH KALIMANTAN TO EAST COAST INDIAN PORTS WERE ASSESSED AT $9.50/MT
COALspot.com: The BDI was closed at 964 points down by 6.13 pct week on week. The Cape Index was lost 172 points or 11.24% week on week and closing ...
Friday, 23 May 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIPS 1.8% WEEK ENDED MAY 17, 2014
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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