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Saturday, 24 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET'S RECOVERY IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER SAYS SHIPOWNER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Despite the weaker than expected market sentiment in the dry bulk market over the course of the past few months, analysts and shipowners alike appear optimistic about a sustainable recovery of the market going forward. According to Friday's report from dry bulk shipowner Golden Ocean, "even though second quarter spot market so far has been weaker than predicted by most analysts following the sector, earnings have still been better than for the same period last year.
The Capesize earnings has year to date been $14,650 /day, compared to $5,650/day for the same period last year. In 2013 the dry bulk market started its recovery in June and gained more momentum from August onwards. From a demand perspective it is expected that new iron ore supply coming on stream will be the main driver over the next two to three years. From 2014 through 2016 as much as 280 million tons additional supply will become available for the global steel industry", said Golden Ocean.
In its market outlook the company noted that "analysts following the Chinese steel industry are expecting lower steel production growth. This is based on the assumptions of lower GDP growth and a gradual change from heavy infrastructure projects and construction to a more consumer focused growth model. In spite of a slower steel production growth analysts believe that demand for iron ore will continue to grow at a steady pace. With all the new capacity entering the market is likely that international iron ore prices will come under even stronger pressure. Consequently a major portion of the domestically produced iron ore which is both more expensive and with an inferior quality could potentially be ousted.
Meanwhile, the ordering of new vessels has been quite brisk. But given that most orders that have been placed lately are for second half 2016 onwards, the supply growth next eighteen months is not expected to exceed five per cent per annum. Most shipping analysts believe that demand growth will be around six per cent per annum and thereby outpace supply growth, leading to a higher utilization of the dry bulk fleet through 2015", Golden Ocean noted.
In its analysis of the dry bulk market so far in the year, the company said that "the second biggest economy in the world continued to make the headlines during first quarter of 2014. China has become the favorite of concerns among many observers analyzing the macroeconomics. The importance for the dry bulk industry is well known and China contributed with 83 per cent of global dry bulk growth, or 200 million tons in pure volume growth, during 2013. Chinese GDP grew by 7.4 per cent during the first quarter which was in line with expectations. In addition to the positive development in the U.S., several of the European economies showed signs of recovery. On the back of this EU increased its steel
production by 6.7 percent compared to same quarter in 2013.
The global steel industry and energy coal for utilities are accounting for about 70 percent of seaborne dry bulk transportations and both coal and iron ore volumes increased during first quarter. China imported 240 million mt of iron ore during the first quarter. This is 20 per cent more than the same quarter last year. Coal imports to China came in at 71 million mt or 9.5 per cent more than the first quarter of 2013. Japan imported 49.5 million mt of coal, which again represented an increase of about 9 per cent. Preliminary data is indicating an overall volume growth in seaborne dry bulk trade of 6 per cent for the first three months of 2014
against a net fleet growth of about 5 per cent", it noted.
DRY BULK MARKET TONNAGE TRENDS
According to Golden Ocean, about 16 million dwt of new capacity was delivered and 3.5 million dwt was scrapped during first quarter. Delivery ratio, versus what should have been delivered according to the official order book, is slightly higher this year compared to the previous five years. The main reason is that the current order book has a higher percentage of good quality yards where orders are delivered in time. About 25 million dwt were ordered during the first quarter, almost twice as much as the same quarter last year, but still 10 million dwt less than the fourth quarter of 2013. The order book represents 19 per cent of the total dry bulk fleet.
Capesize vessels earned on average $16,300 per day during the first quarter, and experienced strong volatility ranging from $7,900 per day to $35,000 per day. Panamaxes earned on average $10.425 per day with less volatility. The market performed better than most forecasters predicted, given that iron ore stockpiles in the major Chinese ports were high by the end of last year. However de-stocking did not take place and stocks remained unchanged during the quarter. We have witnessed some draw down of inventories in recent weeks and the Capesize spot market in particular has reacted accordingly.
Expectations for an upturn in earnings were high through most of the first quarter. This was reflected in the Forward Freight Curve which was in contango, in particular for the second half of 2014. Due to the fact that spot earnings surprised on the upside in combination with a positive sentiment, asset values continued to trend higher in the three first months of the year. The value of a five year old Capesize was up 10 per cent for the quarter and according to broker estimates was worth $48 million, while a five year old Panamax was up 7.5 per cent first quarter and was estimated to be worth $29 million by the end of March 2014.
In April 2014 both spot and forward markets have been under pressure, but most analysts remain confident that the fundamentals should cater for a market upswing within the next few months", the company concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 26 May 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDO COAL SWAP Q1' 15 DELIVERIES CLOSED AT US$ 59.40 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 26 May 14
Q3 14 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS LOST 2.24% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 2.24 percent month on month and closed at US$ 73.88 per mt as on F ...
Monday, 26 May 14
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY RISES BY 78% IN DWT TONNAGE OVER THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF THE YEARS, AS OWNERS INVEST$40.5 BN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners have plunged into newbuilding orders during the first four months of the year, as overall newbuilding business ended for the first four ...
Sunday, 25 May 14
FREIGHT RATES FROM SOUTH KALIMANTAN TO EAST COAST INDIAN PORTS WERE ASSESSED AT $9.50/MT
COALspot.com: The BDI was closed at 964 points down by 6.13 pct week on week. The Cape Index was lost 172 points or 11.24% week on week and closing ...
Friday, 23 May 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIPS 1.8% WEEK ENDED MAY 17, 2014
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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