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Saturday, 24 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET'S RECOVERY IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER SAYS SHIPOWNER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Despite the weaker than expected market sentiment in the dry bulk market over the course of the past few months, analysts and shipowners alike appear optimistic about a sustainable recovery of the market going forward. According to Friday's report from dry bulk shipowner Golden Ocean, "even though second quarter spot market so far has been weaker than predicted by most analysts following the sector, earnings have still been better than for the same period last year.
The Capesize earnings has year to date been $14,650 /day, compared to $5,650/day for the same period last year. In 2013 the dry bulk market started its recovery in June and gained more momentum from August onwards. From a demand perspective it is expected that new iron ore supply coming on stream will be the main driver over the next two to three years. From 2014 through 2016 as much as 280 million tons additional supply will become available for the global steel industry", said Golden Ocean.
In its market outlook the company noted that "analysts following the Chinese steel industry are expecting lower steel production growth. This is based on the assumptions of lower GDP growth and a gradual change from heavy infrastructure projects and construction to a more consumer focused growth model. In spite of a slower steel production growth analysts believe that demand for iron ore will continue to grow at a steady pace. With all the new capacity entering the market is likely that international iron ore prices will come under even stronger pressure. Consequently a major portion of the domestically produced iron ore which is both more expensive and with an inferior quality could potentially be ousted.
Meanwhile, the ordering of new vessels has been quite brisk. But given that most orders that have been placed lately are for second half 2016 onwards, the supply growth next eighteen months is not expected to exceed five per cent per annum. Most shipping analysts believe that demand growth will be around six per cent per annum and thereby outpace supply growth, leading to a higher utilization of the dry bulk fleet through 2015", Golden Ocean noted.
In its analysis of the dry bulk market so far in the year, the company said that "the second biggest economy in the world continued to make the headlines during first quarter of 2014. China has become the favorite of concerns among many observers analyzing the macroeconomics. The importance for the dry bulk industry is well known and China contributed with 83 per cent of global dry bulk growth, or 200 million tons in pure volume growth, during 2013. Chinese GDP grew by 7.4 per cent during the first quarter which was in line with expectations. In addition to the positive development in the U.S., several of the European economies showed signs of recovery. On the back of this EU increased its steel
production by 6.7 percent compared to same quarter in 2013.
The global steel industry and energy coal for utilities are accounting for about 70 percent of seaborne dry bulk transportations and both coal and iron ore volumes increased during first quarter. China imported 240 million mt of iron ore during the first quarter. This is 20 per cent more than the same quarter last year. Coal imports to China came in at 71 million mt or 9.5 per cent more than the first quarter of 2013. Japan imported 49.5 million mt of coal, which again represented an increase of about 9 per cent. Preliminary data is indicating an overall volume growth in seaborne dry bulk trade of 6 per cent for the first three months of 2014
against a net fleet growth of about 5 per cent", it noted.
DRY BULK MARKET TONNAGE TRENDS
According to Golden Ocean, about 16 million dwt of new capacity was delivered and 3.5 million dwt was scrapped during first quarter. Delivery ratio, versus what should have been delivered according to the official order book, is slightly higher this year compared to the previous five years. The main reason is that the current order book has a higher percentage of good quality yards where orders are delivered in time. About 25 million dwt were ordered during the first quarter, almost twice as much as the same quarter last year, but still 10 million dwt less than the fourth quarter of 2013. The order book represents 19 per cent of the total dry bulk fleet.
Capesize vessels earned on average $16,300 per day during the first quarter, and experienced strong volatility ranging from $7,900 per day to $35,000 per day. Panamaxes earned on average $10.425 per day with less volatility. The market performed better than most forecasters predicted, given that iron ore stockpiles in the major Chinese ports were high by the end of last year. However de-stocking did not take place and stocks remained unchanged during the quarter. We have witnessed some draw down of inventories in recent weeks and the Capesize spot market in particular has reacted accordingly.
Expectations for an upturn in earnings were high through most of the first quarter. This was reflected in the Forward Freight Curve which was in contango, in particular for the second half of 2014. Due to the fact that spot earnings surprised on the upside in combination with a positive sentiment, asset values continued to trend higher in the three first months of the year. The value of a five year old Capesize was up 10 per cent for the quarter and according to broker estimates was worth $48 million, while a five year old Panamax was up 7.5 per cent first quarter and was estimated to be worth $29 million by the end of March 2014.
In April 2014 both spot and forward markets have been under pressure, but most analysts remain confident that the fundamentals should cater for a market upswing within the next few months", the company concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 26 May 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDO COAL SWAP Q1' 15 DELIVERIES CLOSED AT US$ 59.40 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 26 May 14
Q3 14 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS LOST 2.24% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 2.24 percent month on month and closed at US$ 73.88 per mt as on F ...
Monday, 26 May 14
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY RISES BY 78% IN DWT TONNAGE OVER THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF THE YEARS, AS OWNERS INVEST$40.5 BN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners have plunged into newbuilding orders during the first four months of the year, as overall newbuilding business ended for the first four ...
Sunday, 25 May 14
FREIGHT RATES FROM SOUTH KALIMANTAN TO EAST COAST INDIAN PORTS WERE ASSESSED AT $9.50/MT
COALspot.com: The BDI was closed at 964 points down by 6.13 pct week on week. The Cape Index was lost 172 points or 11.24% week on week and closing ...
Friday, 23 May 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIPS 1.8% WEEK ENDED MAY 17, 2014
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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