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Saturday, 24 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET'S RECOVERY IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER SAYS SHIPOWNER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Despite the weaker than expected market sentiment in the dry bulk market over the course of the past few months, analysts and shipowners alike appear optimistic about a sustainable recovery of the market going forward. According to Friday's report from dry bulk shipowner Golden Ocean, "even though second quarter spot market so far has been weaker than predicted by most analysts following the sector, earnings have still been better than for the same period last year.
The Capesize earnings has year to date been $14,650 /day, compared to $5,650/day for the same period last year. In 2013 the dry bulk market started its recovery in June and gained more momentum from August onwards. From a demand perspective it is expected that new iron ore supply coming on stream will be the main driver over the next two to three years. From 2014 through 2016 as much as 280 million tons additional supply will become available for the global steel industry", said Golden Ocean.
In its market outlook the company noted that "analysts following the Chinese steel industry are expecting lower steel production growth. This is based on the assumptions of lower GDP growth and a gradual change from heavy infrastructure projects and construction to a more consumer focused growth model. In spite of a slower steel production growth analysts believe that demand for iron ore will continue to grow at a steady pace. With all the new capacity entering the market is likely that international iron ore prices will come under even stronger pressure. Consequently a major portion of the domestically produced iron ore which is both more expensive and with an inferior quality could potentially be ousted.
Meanwhile, the ordering of new vessels has been quite brisk. But given that most orders that have been placed lately are for second half 2016 onwards, the supply growth next eighteen months is not expected to exceed five per cent per annum. Most shipping analysts believe that demand growth will be around six per cent per annum and thereby outpace supply growth, leading to a higher utilization of the dry bulk fleet through 2015", Golden Ocean noted.
In its analysis of the dry bulk market so far in the year, the company said that "the second biggest economy in the world continued to make the headlines during first quarter of 2014. China has become the favorite of concerns among many observers analyzing the macroeconomics. The importance for the dry bulk industry is well known and China contributed with 83 per cent of global dry bulk growth, or 200 million tons in pure volume growth, during 2013. Chinese GDP grew by 7.4 per cent during the first quarter which was in line with expectations. In addition to the positive development in the U.S., several of the European economies showed signs of recovery. On the back of this EU increased its steel
production by 6.7 percent compared to same quarter in 2013.
The global steel industry and energy coal for utilities are accounting for about 70 percent of seaborne dry bulk transportations and both coal and iron ore volumes increased during first quarter. China imported 240 million mt of iron ore during the first quarter. This is 20 per cent more than the same quarter last year. Coal imports to China came in at 71 million mt or 9.5 per cent more than the first quarter of 2013. Japan imported 49.5 million mt of coal, which again represented an increase of about 9 per cent. Preliminary data is indicating an overall volume growth in seaborne dry bulk trade of 6 per cent for the first three months of 2014
against a net fleet growth of about 5 per cent", it noted.
DRY BULK MARKET TONNAGE TRENDS
According to Golden Ocean, about 16 million dwt of new capacity was delivered and 3.5 million dwt was scrapped during first quarter. Delivery ratio, versus what should have been delivered according to the official order book, is slightly higher this year compared to the previous five years. The main reason is that the current order book has a higher percentage of good quality yards where orders are delivered in time. About 25 million dwt were ordered during the first quarter, almost twice as much as the same quarter last year, but still 10 million dwt less than the fourth quarter of 2013. The order book represents 19 per cent of the total dry bulk fleet.
Capesize vessels earned on average $16,300 per day during the first quarter, and experienced strong volatility ranging from $7,900 per day to $35,000 per day. Panamaxes earned on average $10.425 per day with less volatility. The market performed better than most forecasters predicted, given that iron ore stockpiles in the major Chinese ports were high by the end of last year. However de-stocking did not take place and stocks remained unchanged during the quarter. We have witnessed some draw down of inventories in recent weeks and the Capesize spot market in particular has reacted accordingly.
Expectations for an upturn in earnings were high through most of the first quarter. This was reflected in the Forward Freight Curve which was in contango, in particular for the second half of 2014. Due to the fact that spot earnings surprised on the upside in combination with a positive sentiment, asset values continued to trend higher in the three first months of the year. The value of a five year old Capesize was up 10 per cent for the quarter and according to broker estimates was worth $48 million, while a five year old Panamax was up 7.5 per cent first quarter and was estimated to be worth $29 million by the end of March 2014.
In April 2014 both spot and forward markets have been under pressure, but most analysts remain confident that the fundamentals should cater for a market upswing within the next few months", the company concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 04 June 14
SKULD: DIVERSIFICATION AND A ROBUST BOTTOM LINE
In February, I was delighted to ring in the new policy year with the Skuld team following a solid renewal round and a strong year. 2013 was, in man ...
Monday, 02 June 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS LOST GROUND THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 02 June 14
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP WAS SHOWING A POSITIVE MOVE IN Q4, INSTEAD OF THIS WEEK'S WEAK TREND
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 3.39 percent month on month and closed at US$ 72.65 per mt as on F ...
Sunday, 01 June 14
INDO - INDIA SUPRMAX FREIGHT RATES CONTINUED TO DOWN THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was soft this past week as all sectors soften particularly Panamax index was lost 129 points or 12.88% week on wee ...
Friday, 30 May 14
CLEAN COAL PROCESSING & CONVERSION ASIA SUMMIT 2014
Clean Coal Processing & Conversion Asia Summit 2014 will be held on Nov 20-21st, 2014 in Jakarta, Indonesia.
With the cooperation of ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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